25.09.202612:37 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – September 25 (U.S. Session)

Review of Trades and Trading Advice for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 158.23 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, confirming that it was an appropriate entry point for buying the U.S. dollar. However, the pair failed to rise, resulting in the position being closed at a loss.

Durable goods orders and the University of Michigan data, including inflation expectations, will be the main events for the U.S. dollar in the second half of the day, while speeches by Williams and Hammack will, in my view, merely repeat the rhetoric already heard this week. However, for the yen, today has developed in a much more dramatic way than might have been expected. In the morning, the Bank of Japan's core consumer price index for August was released, accelerating to 1.8% year on year from 1.6% in July and exceeding the forecast of 1.5%. This significantly exceeded market expectations and strengthened the case for further normalization of the central bank's policy. However, political statements had a much stronger impact on the currency. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said that she had directly told U.S. President Donald Trump that the yen was undervalued, describing this as "problematic," and the yen updated its intraday high following her remarks.

Equally significant is the confirmation that Trump himself shares these concerns. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said that the U.S. president expressed similar concerns about the yen's weakness during a meeting with Takaichi in New York this week and added that she would continue coordinating actions with her counterpart, Scott Bessent. For USD/JPY, this combination of signals appears much more significant than routine rhetoric from Fed officials: strong Japanese inflation data had already given the central bank grounds to tighten policy, and now there is also clear political pressure from both sides of the Pacific, which could lead to further currency interventions.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the entry point reaches the 158.23 level (the green line on the chart), with the target of rising to 158.68 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.68, I will close the long position and open a short position in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35-point move in the opposite direction from the level. A rise in the pair can be expected today, but the potential is rather limited. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 157.91 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 158.23 and 158.68 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the 157.91 level is broken (the red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 157.57, where I will close the short position and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move in the opposite direction from the level. Downward pressure on the pair will return if the central bank intervenes. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 158.23 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 157.91 and 157.57 can be expected.

What Is Shown on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the expected price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the expected price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold zones into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders need to make market-entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making trading decisions spontaneously based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.