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Gold (XAU/USD) has attracted selling interest for the second consecutive day. At the same time, the precious metal remains above Friday's low, which was set amid optimistic U.S. employment data for the previous month. This is prompting bearish traders to exercise caution before making decisions about potential further losses.
The widely followed U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed that the economy created 162,000 new jobs in August, significantly exceeding the consensus forecast of 56,000. Other data showed that the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%, as expected, while annual wage inflation, measured by the change in average hourly earnings, decreased to 3.1% from 3.2%.
At the same time, rising inflation risks caused by higher energy prices and growing expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike at the end of this month are viewed as factors supporting the U.S. dollar and weakening gold.
At the same time, the U.S. labor market has been assessed as stable and improved.
According to TD Securities analysts, the latest data confirm the view that the U.S. labor market remains stable. They emphasize that, based on the official data, there is "positive momentum in the private sector in terms of employment," indicating that the labor market is in good condition and may improve further.
Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said last Thursday that he was inclined to support keeping interest rates at their current levels if upcoming data confirm a decline in inflationary pressures. This factor is preventing dollar bulls from taking aggressive positions ahead of the release of fresh U.S. inflation data expected later this week, which could support higher gold prices.
The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively, and their analysis will provide additional information about the Fed's future monetary policy. This, in turn, will have the greatest impact on the short-term dynamics of the U.S. dollar and provide a new impulse for XAU/USD.
At the same time, the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict in the Strait of Hormuz is supporting the geopolitical risk premium and strengthening the dollar as a safe-haven asset. On Saturday, U.S. military forces struck three Iranian oil tankers, prompting Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to launch strikes against six vessels. These reciprocal actions are increasing concerns about the safety of shipping through this strategically important route and creating additional risks to the stability of oil supplies from the Middle East. This, in turn, is supporting elevated oil prices and fueling inflation expectations.
This is putting pressure on gold, prompting buyers to exercise caution before potentially opening new long positions.
From a technical perspective, XAU/USD is holding firmly above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) and above the 100-day SMA, but below the 200-day SMA. This indicates that the current sideways movement is continuing despite the decline in the oscillators. At present, the oscillators have taken a neutral position, confirming the sideways movement of XAU/USD. The nearest resistance is at $4,450. The nearest support is the 100-day SMA.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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