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The benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price extended its rise yesterday and set a September high today. After a pullback, it appears ready to resume its upward move amid rising US–Iran tensions.
In the latest developments in the Middle East crisis, US forces struck Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps positions in response to attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and actions against US personnel in the region. Iran, in turn, reported large-scale missile and drone strikes on US targets in Jordan and the UAE. This situation highlights risks to commercial shipping in the area and raises supply concerns, which are bullish for oil prices.
The US–Iran tensions underscore the fragility of energy agreements. TD Securities strategists note that the recent escalation is a stark reminder of how tenuous any accords or memoranda of understanding remain. They emphasize that the renewed confrontation exposes vulnerabilities in current arrangements around key energy chokepoints, and even with increased flows through US-backed corridors, the episode keeps the question of a risk premium for energy markets alive.
Additionally, Russia's decision on Sunday to extend its diesel export ban through September 30 has heightened worries about refined product supplies, which also contributes to upward pressure on oil prices. US President Donald Trump meanwhile announced that oil earmarked under a recently announced Venezuela deal will be directed to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. That makes the timing and scale of any additional supply from the Venezuela deal uncertain, reinforcing a constructive outlook for oil prices.
Technically, after breaking above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the round $87.00 level, US benchmark WTI crude retains a bullish bias. Returns to those support levels should find buyers on dips. Resistance sits at the round $91.00 level, with the July high acting as a more distant barrier. Oscillators are positive, confirming the bulls' edge in the market. Therefore, the path of least resistance is upward, and any correction should be viewed as a buying opportunity.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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