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On Tuesday, August 25, the economic calendar contains no major events, but that does not mean that important news cannot emerge during the day. Let's briefly review the most interesting events scheduled for Tuesday.
Tuesday's economic reports can broadly be divided into two categories: interesting and important. There are no releases in the second category. Germany's second-quarter GDP is expected to show growth of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and 0.9% year-on-year, which traders have already anticipated based on the first two estimates. Germany's business climate index may edge up in August compared with July, reaching 87.2 points. The weekly ADP report is merely a formality and is not even a second-tier release, but rather a third-tier one. The market generally does not react even to the monthly ADP reports, preferring to wait for the Nonfarm Payrolls report and the unemployment rate. The Consumer Confidence Index is also far from being the most important release. New Home Sales is another indicator that may appear interesting but almost never triggers a significant market reaction. Thus, there will be plenty of events tomorrow, but none that are likely to have a meaningful impact on market sentiment.
However, geopolitics, Donald Trump, China, or Iran could come to the rescue. I cannot say that every piece of news from Beijing, Washington, or Tehran will automatically trigger sharp moves in the currency market, but the possibility certainly exists. Iran is already threatening to block new routes used by oil and gas tankers if the United States or any other country puts pressure on it. Any kind of pressure—military or economic. And that is precisely what Donald Trump has in mind. The U.S. president believes that Iran could suffer an economic collapse and become unable to continue resisting. At that point, it would have to return to the negotiating table and sign a nuclear deal on Trump's terms. Of course, this argument can be disputed, but perhaps the U.S. president knows better. Or perhaps not?
Since China is one of Iran's key trading partners, Trump could potentially launch a new trade war with Beijing. Whether the U.S. leader will go that far remains unclear, but it seems to me that this is a highly plausible development. If a new trade war begins, the bears could continue to retreat. In fact, as many as three new trade wars could begin in the near future: with the European Union, Canada, and China. Therefore, I advise traders to closely monitor not only economic news but also any developments related to geopolitics or trade. By the end of the week, the dollar could once again come under pressure from traders, as Kevin Warsh is scheduled to speak. The market's view of Warsh is currently highly mixed. Despite his hawkish rhetoric about the need to bring inflation down, the market sees no indication that the Fed is actually moving in that direction. And all of the latest U.S. economic reports suggest quite the opposite.
In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend. The fundamental backdrop shifted sharply in favor of the bears six months ago, but the trend itself cannot be considered invalidated or complete. Therefore, the bulls may well continue their advance following two liquidity sweeps of clearly defined lows. At present, bullish traders have support from both imbalance 20 and imbalance 21. A new buy signal could form this week. I consider 1.1797 and 1.1850 to be the upward targets for the euro.
The long-term outlook for the pound remains bullish. Following liquidity sweeps of the two most recent swings and the formation of a series of buy signals, the bulls continue to advance. I currently see no basis for a bearish attack, as there are no bearish patterns or signals. The bulls received a buy signal from imbalance 24, which remains valid. Based on this signal, traders may already consider taking profits. A new buy signal was formed within imbalance 26. The current upward target for the pound is the January 27 high at 1.3867. A liquidity sweep of the May 1 swing could push the pound somewhat lower, but it is unlikely to disrupt the bullish advance.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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