01.05.202600:55 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Iran Will Not Retreat: Hormuz May Become a Hotspot

Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have flared up again, and Iran has made it clear that it will not make any concessions. In his statement marking the National Day of the Persian Gulf, Mojtaba Khamenei announced the beginning of a "new phase" and promised to ensure the security of this vital waterway at all costs, as well as to protect the country's nuclear and missile programs.

Khamenei's statement was one of the most severe since he took office. It is worth recalling that it was during this time that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian declared that the U.S. naval blockade "contradicts international law" and is "doomed to fail."

Essentially, Khamenei is unwilling to give up positions and prepared for the tough retaliatory measures his father outlined at the beginning of the conflict. Let us remember that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed on February 28 during U.S.-Israeli strikes. In his first public address in March, the young Khamenei vowed to continue blocking the Strait of Hormuz as a "pressure lever" and urged Gulf Arab states to close U.S. military bases. His father had warned back in February that Iran supposedly possesses weapons capable of sending U.S. ships "to the bottom of the ocean."

In his speech today, Khamenei reminded that Iran's nuclear and missile capabilities are a national asset. It is evident that the regime is not willing to negotiate on its weapons programs. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), headed by Ahmad Vahidi and increasingly playing a central political role in Iran, opposes any concessions regarding sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and especially regarding nuclear issues.

At the same time, the U.S. is revealing the real scale of the restrictions. On Wednesday evening, U.S. Central Command announced that since the blockade began, 42 commercial vessels have been deployed, with 69 million barrels of Iranian oil blocked on tankers. Admiral Brad Cooper called this an "exceptional" achievement in restricting Iran's maritime trade.

Iran, for its part, has effectively nearly closed off the Strait of Hormuz since April 18: the IRGC warned that any vessel approaching the strait would be considered "cooperation with the enemy" and would be attacked.

Thus, Khamenei has announced the beginning of a "new phase" of the war and promised to protect the security of the Persian Gulf and Iran's key programs. He does not intend to retreat from his hardline stance.