This week exposed a critical level of chaos in decision-making by the administration of the 47th president. While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly opposes renewing the general license for exports of Russian oil, and Donald Trump formally extends the national emergency and related restrictions for a year, the reality looks different: on the evening of April 17 the OFAC office issued a new License 134B. That document effectively allows operations with Russian oil on tankers until mid?May, creating a situation where "the right hand" of the Treasury doesn't know what "the left hand" is doing, while markets feverishly try to guess Washington's next move.
The same managerial paralysis cuts through the Iran track. Trump's behavior resembles a pendulum: in the morning, he threatens total destruction of Iranian civilization, and in the evening, he announces a ceasefire. He proclaims the "permanent opening" of the Strait of Hormuz, then hours later moves to blockade it. Such inconsistency points to a tortured search for a way out of the war that can be presented to voters as a triumph. Subconsciously, the US president leans toward a deal model similar to the 2015 nuclear agreement (JCPOA) — which he himself abandoned in 2018. But today, instead of professional diplomats and nuclear experts, negotiations are being conducted by people without the relevant experience, making a stable compromise nearly impossible.
The reality is that the main goal of the "Epic Fury" — regime change in Tehran — has not been achieved. Trump understands that without a deal with Iran, it is impossible to stop its nuclear program and, perhaps more critically for domestic US politics, to restore free navigation. The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the higher fuel prices rise in America, which inexorably pushes Republicans toward a catastrophic defeat in the November congressional elections. Yet the strait, declared "open" by Trump, remains effectively shut. After two vessels that dared to enter were fired upon, traffic halted, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) made clear: the strait will not reopen until the US lifts the blockade of Iranian ports.
Trust between the parties has been completely undermined. This deadlock makes investors doubt the reality of de?escalation, especially when the "open" status of the strait lasted less than a day. Even if a new round of talks takes place on Monday, it will occur under extreme tension where any spark could return the region to full?scale war. The world has entered a phase of maximal strain. Only three days remain until April 22 — the official expiry date of the ceasefire — and for markets, those days will be a moment of truth. Oil remains the chief barometer: its failure to hold lower levels will signal that traders no longer believe in diplomacy and are preparing for a new wave of shortages.
Iran has formally withdrawn from the "limited commercial transit" agreement and informed Washington it does not wish to continue negotiations. Since Saturday morning, at least three merchant vessels have been attacked, effectively nullifying any security guarantees. In response, US Central Command (CENTCOM) has deployed AH-64 Apache attack helicopters to patrol the waters. The Apaches, armed with Hellfire missiles, now provide a visible presence and are prepared for more decisive action.
According to The Wall Street Journal, the Trump administration has authorized a shift to a more aggressive tactic. US Navy assault units have been ordered to prepare for boarding and seizing Iranian tankers. Whereas previously US sailors merely warned vessels and demanded they return to port, the "maximum pressure" strategy now envisages direct physical control over cargoes. Trump hopes that such "tanker hunting" will force Tehran to be more compliant on the nuclear issue and to reopen the strait on US terms.
The economic audit of 50 days of conflict looks catastrophic. The global market has already lost more than 500 million barrels of oil, and total damage has exceeded $50 billion. The sharp drop in production in the Persian Gulf has caused a global shortage of aviation fuel and refined products. Even if the hot phase ends tomorrow, rebuilding the destroyed infrastructure will take years. Against this backdrop, Trump's decision to permit operations with Russian oil until May 16 looks like a gesture aimed at somehow replenishing the market while bypassing a blocked Hormuz.
Incidentally, he himself posted a record 58 tweets in less than a day — from "good news" on Iran to the usual attacks on opposition media and reminders about the 2020 election. The president clearly understands the scale of the threat: if the war does not end in a triumphant peace soon, the consequences of high gasoline prices and inflation will turn the November congressional elections into a political slaughter for the Republicans. Trump is rushing to close the Iran case before his administration gets bogged down in endless congressional investigations and impeachment proceedings. The Donald Trump administration has entered a dangerous phase of "geopolitical multitasking," trying to maintain two naval blockades at opposite ends of the globe — in the Strait of Hormuz and off the coast of Cuba.
"It is extremely advantageous for Iran right now to test the American blockade with a tanker flying the Chinese flag," notes Brett Erickson of Obsidian Risk Advisors. "Intercepting a Chinese vessel just weeks before the Trump?Xi summit in Beijing (May 14–15) would be an escalation of unthinkable proportions. Washington is backed into a corner: failing to respond would expose the blockade as weak, while decisive action could wreck the talks Trump is counting on for a triumph," the expert emphasizes.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Trump rejected a plan to seize Iran's Kharg Island — the country's key export node through which some 90% of its oil passes. Although such an operation could have instantly crippled Tehran's economy, the president feared potential casualties. Senior officials say the president views the war with Iran as a chance to radically reshape the world order — something he failed to achieve in his first term. In private, he has said, "If we do everything right, we will save the world."
The stock market is responding to the situation with gains. However, the Dow Jones does not share the optimism of the Nasdaq and the S&P 500, which draw strength from the AI sector. Meanwhile, the Q1 2026 earnings season in the US is showing anomalous corporate resilience: so far 84% of reporting companies have beaten revenue expectations — well above five- and ten-year averages (70% and 67% respectively). The S&P 500 has risen 10% since the start of the month on hopes of de?escalation in the Strait of Hormuz. But behind that rise lies aggressive lobbying by IT giants seeking to protect supply chains and technologies from unpredictable maneuvers by the Trump administration.
Anthropic. The surprise of 2026 has been the rise of Anthropic. Founded by former OpenAI employees, the company bet on "Constitutional AI" — Claude's self?correction system based on strict ethical rules. That strategy allowed Anthropic to capture 32% of the corporate AI market, ahead of OpenAI (25%) and Google (20%). Claude Code now dominates the AI coding segment with a 42% market share, and 8 of the top 10 Fortune 500 companies are clients. But success has led to a head?on clash with authorities.
Defense Secretary Hegseth demanded lifting restrictions on using Claude for "any lawful purpose," including control of autonomous weapons. The administration added Anthropic to the "Supply Chain Risk" list. Legal battles are ongoing: while a San Francisco court sided with the company, an appellate court in the District of Columbia cited government interests and refused to block the designation. This conflict is a key risk for Anthropic's future valuation at listing, even though operating metrics continue to grow despite political pressure.
The inflationary shadow over the US is darkening. Although the latest CPI and PPI reports were slightly better than the bleakest forecasts, they still show strong price growth. Analysts warn that the current spike caused by the energy shock in the Persian Gulf is only the tip of the iceberg. A true inflation wave will hit the economy in the coming months as logistics and energy costs are fully embedded in final goods prices. For now, however, the dollar index continues to show weakness. The short?term outlook remains bearish, and the market is currently voting against the US currency amid expectations that Trump will push for rate cuts.
20 April, 09:00 / Germany / Producer inflation growth in March / prev.: -3.0% / actual: -3.3% / forecast: -1.8% / EUR/USD – up Industrial deflation in Germany unexpectedly accelerated to -3.3% in March 2026, marking the sharpest pace of decline in two years. The main driver was a collapse in energy prices (-12.5%), particularly:
The food sector is also showing deflationary pressure, led by lower prices for dairy and meat. Excluding volatile components, core producer inflation slowed to 1.0%. If the March reading recovers to the forecast -1.8%, the euro will receive an upside impulse.
20 April, 12:00 / Eurozone / Construction output growth in February / prev.: 0.7% / actual: -1.9% / forecast: -1.2% / EUR/USD – up
Construction output in the euro area fell 1.9% year-on-year in January 2026, interrupting a period of moderate growth. The current decline is well below the long-term average (-0.14%), underscoring persistent weakness in the sector amid high interest rates. If February's figure meets the -1.2% forecast, the euro could show a recovery.
20 April, 15:30 / Canada / Headline consumer inflation in March / prev.: 2.3% / actual: 1.8% / forecast: 2.5% / USD/CAD – down
Canada's inflation slowed to 1.8% year-on-year in February 2026, reaching the lowest level since last summer. Factors helping the reading move into the Bank of Canada's target range included:
Note that these figures do not reflect the subsequent oil price jump driven by geopolitics. If March inflation rises to the forecast 2.5%, this will reinforce expectations of tighter policy and support the Canadian dollar.
20 April, 15:30 / Canada / Core consumer inflation in March / prev.: 2.7% / actual: 2.4% / forecast: 2.9% / USD/CAD – down
The core CPI measure (CPI?common), reflecting underlying inflationary pressure in Canada, fell to 2.4% in February. Cooling core inflation suggests the Bank of Canada's measures are having an effect. However, the market is pricing the possibility of a sharp reversal in March. If core rises to the 2.9% forecast, the Canadian dollar may gain support.
21 April, 09:00 / United Kingdom / Employment growth in February / prev.: 52k / actual: 84k / forecast: -35k / GBP/USD – down The UK labor market showed exceptional resilience. Over the three months, employment increased by 84,000, well above expectations. The rise to 34.31 million employed was supported by both full? and part-time jobs, and the employment rate reached 75.1%. Despite the positive report, market expectations remain volatile. If February's reading falls to the forecast -35k, the pound will come under pressure.
21 April, 12:00 / Eurozone / ZEW economic sentiment index for April (leading) / prev.: 39.4 pts / actual: -8.5 pts / forecast: -16.0 pts / EUR/USD – down
Economic optimism in the euro area collapsed in March 2026: the ZEW index plunged 47.9 points to -8.5. The sharp pessimism reflects:
More than a third of respondents expect a deterioration, and inflation concerns have jumped to critical levels. If the April index falls to the forecast -16.0, the euro will face serious downside pressure.
21 April, 09:00 / Germany / ZEW economic sentiment index for April (leading) / prev.: 58.3 pts / actual: -0.5 pts / forecast: -10.0 pts / EUR/USD – down
German economic optimism experienced one of the biggest drops in the index's history, collapsing 58.8 points to -0.5. The Middle East escalation has driven energy prices sharply higher, threatening the recovery of Europe's largest economy. Although the assessment of the current situation was better than expected, fear of a protracted crisis dominates sentiment. If April's reading reaches the forecast -10.0, the euro may weaken.
21 April, 15:15 / US / ADP private payrolls (weekly) / prev.: 26.0k / actual: 39.25k / forecast: — / USDX (6-currency USD index) – volatile
The US labor market shows exceptional momentum: weekly private payrolls per ADP jumped to 39.25k. This is the fourth consecutive week of improved hiring and the highest weekly reading since ADP began weekly reporting in September 2025. Such a strong employment recovery sets the stage for high dollar volatility ahead of broader data releases.
21 April, 15:30 / US / Retail sales growth in March / prev.: 3.19% / actual: 3.7% / forecast: 2.4% / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down
US retail sales grew 3.7% year-on-year in February 2026, well above market expectations. Despite the positive reading, the figure remains below the long-run average of 4.74%. In the 2026 context, such data may prompt dollar profit-taking. If March sales slow to the forecast 2.4%, the USDX will likely continue lower.
21 April, 17:00 / US / Pending home sales volumes / prev.: -0.4% / actual: -0.8% / forecast: 0.7% / USDX (6-currency USD index) – up The US housing market showed an unexpected cooling: pending home sales fell 0.8% in February.
The gap between reality and optimistic analyst forecasts highlights the sector's fragility. If March does not recover to the forecast 0.7%, the dollar index could gain as investors seek safe havens.
21 April, 23:30 / US / API crude oil inventories / prev.: 3.719 mln bbls / actual: 6.1 mln bbls / forecast: -1.0 mln bbls / Brent – volatile
API data show US crude inventories rose for the fifth consecutive week, increasing by 6.1 million barrels. This sharp build came contrary to expectations of a drawdown, indicating excess supply in the US domestic market despite global geopolitical instability. Brent's reaction will be volatile as markets await confirmation from the EIA's official statistics.
22 April, 02:50 / Japan / Export share in trade balance for March (surplus) / prev.: 16.8% / actual: 4.2% / forecast: 11.1% / USD/JPY – down Japan's export momentum sharply slowed to 4.2% in February, the weakest six-month performance. The main cause was falling demand from key partners — China and the US — where Japanese goods faced pressure from new tariffs under the Trump administration. While shipments to Europe and ASEAN remain stable, risks for Japan's export-oriented economy are rising. If March's export share reaches the forecast 11.1%, the yen could strengthen.
22 April, 02:50 / Japan / Import share in trade balance for March (surplus) / prev.: -2.6% / actual: 10.2% / forecast: 7.1% / USD/JPY – down
Japan's imports rebounded to 10.2% in February, the fastest growth in 18 months. A stimulus package from the Takaichi administration revived domestic demand. Increased purchases of electrical equipment and industrial goods offset lower mineral fuel import costs. If March imports settle at the projected 7.1%, this would confirm stabilizing domestic consumption and bolster the yen.
22 April, 04:00 / Australia / Westpac–Melbourne Institute leading index for March (leading) / prev.: 0.0% / actual: -0.1% / forecast: 0.2% / AUD/USD – up The Westpac–Melbourne Institute leading index fell 0.1% in February 2026, interrupting a short period of stagnation. Although early-year momentum remains slightly above average, Westpac warns of an imminent cooling. Earlier rate hikes and the Middle East escalation are starting to weigh on the economy. Australia's 2026 GDP forecast has been cut to 2.0% (vs. 2.5% in 2025). Still, markets are preparing for another RBA move — economist Matthew Hassan expects a 25 bp hike in May. If the optimistic 0.2% outcome is realized, the Aussie would strengthen.
22 April, 09:00 / United Kingdom / Headline CPI growth in March / prev.: 3.0% / actual: 3.0% / forecast: 3.3% / GBP/USD – up UK inflation held at 3.0% in February 2026, matching expectations. Notably, clothing (+0.9%) was a principal driver as retailers rolled out spring collections. Housing and utilities also rose (to 4.6%), while transport saw relief as gasoline fell by 1.6 pence per liter. Core CPI surprised by rising to 3.2%. If March reaches the 3.3% forecast, the pound would gain.
22 April, 09:00 / United Kingdom / Producer inflation growth in March / prev.: 2.5% / actual: 1.7% / forecast: 2.9% / GBP/USD – up UK factory prices slowed sharply to 1.7% year-on-year in February — an 11?month low. The main drag was oil products, down 8.6%, and automotive inflation eased from 5.5% to 1.8%. Food prices remain elevated (+2.4%). A monthly decline of 0.5% surprised analysts. If March producer inflation reaccelerates to the forecast 2.9%, the pound would be supported.
22 April, 09:00 / United Kingdom / Retail Price Index (RPI) in March / prev.: 3.8% / actual: 3.6% / forecast: 3.4% / GBP/USD – down The RPI slowed to 3.6% in February 2026, a yearly low and slightly softer than expectations, signaling easing consumer price pressure. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.4%. If March's RPI falls to the 3.4% forecast, the pound would weaken.
22 April, 15:30 / Canada / New home price growth in March (m/m) / prev.: -0.4% / actual: 0.3% / forecast: 0.2% / USD/CAD – up Canada's housing market sent its first positive signal in a year: new home prices rose 0.3% in February. Both building prices and land values increased by 0.3%. Although the sector remains down year-on-year (-2.1%), February's rebound beat pessimistic forecasts. If March posts the projected 0.2% gain, this would confirm stabilization and likely weigh on the Canadian dollar.
22 April, 17:00 / Eurozone / Consumer confidence index for April (leading) / prev.: -12.3 / actual: -16.3 / forecast: -17.9 / EUR/USD – down Eurozone consumer confidence settled at -16.3 in March 2026, the worst reading in two and a half years. The bloc faces broad pessimism as households fret over the Middle East conflict and sharply higher inflation expectations. Consumers are postponing big purchases and are more skeptical about their financial outlook. If April's forecast of -17.9 is realized, the euro would come under further pressure.
22 April, 17:30 / US / EIA crude oil inventories / prev.: 3.081 mln bbls / actual: -0.913 mln bbls / forecast: 0.705 mln bbls / Brent – down The US Department of Energy's EIA reported an unexpected draw of 913,000 barrels in crude inventories, versus expectations of a build. Traders focused on the largest annual drop at the Cushing hub (-1.7 million barrels). Despite lower refinery run rates and a utilization rate falling to 89.6%, product stocks (gasoline and distillates) fell much more than forecasts — by 6.3 million and 3.1 million barrels respectively — driven by a record decline in net crude imports. If next week's forecasted 0.705 mln barrel build materializes, the current supply tightness could ease and put downward pressure on Brent.
Speeches and events to watch:
Speeches by senior central bank officials are expected throughout these days; their comments typically trigger FX volatility as they can signal future rate plans.
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