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On Thursday, April 2, 2026, the US dollar went on the offensive again. The USDX index returned to levels above the psychological mark of 100.00, recouping earlier losses, after President Donald Trump destroyed hopes for a swift end to the war in Iran. Risk-off sentiment returned to the market, restoring the dollar's role as the primary "safe haven."
Current situation: Trump's rhetoric restores USD strength
Last night (01:00 GMT on Thursday), Trump delivered an address to the nation that many had expected to signal de-escalation. Instead, the important update repeated the aggressive rhetoric of the past four weeks. The president said he expects fighting to continue for another two to three weeks, threatened Iran with extremely severe attacks, and urged allies to summon the courage"to secure the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump also said that Iran had requested a ceasefire, but stressed that it would depend on the Strait of Hormuz being reopened, which shifts his recent narrative about distancing from responsibility for the strait.
Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian responded with an open letter to the American people, questioning whether the war in Iran aligns with Trump's pledge of America First. Tehran called Washington's demands for a peace deal maximalist and irrational, while hostilities continue: Israel and Iran exchange missiles and drones.
This escalation brought back risk-off sentiment, wiping out most of the rally of the past two days and restoring support for the dollar.
Fundamental backdrop: US economy remains resilient
On Wednesday, macro data supportive of the dollar were released. ADP employment showed a net gain of 62,000 jobs in March, beating expectations of +40,000, and February data were revised up to +66,000 (from +63,000 previously).
The ISM manufacturing PMI improved to 52.7 — the highest reading since July 2022 — up from 52.4 in February, also beating forecasts. However, optimism on the headline indicators was offset by rising costs and weak employment components: the prices paid index jumped to 78.3, while the employment index eased to 48.7.
All eyes now turn to the Nonfarm Payrolls report, due Friday at 12:30 GMT. Market consensus expects payrolls to improve, with +60,000 jobs forecast, partially offsetting the -92,000 print in February. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.4%.
Although upcoming employment data may not fully capture the war's impact on jobs, they can still move markets significantly — especially bond yields, the dollar and commodity futures (US equity markets will be closed on Friday for Good Friday). Any material rise in unemployment or a weak NFP print could have a disproportionately large effect on markets.
Outlook: two scenarios
Scenario A (main one): sustained tension and holding above 100.00
The most likely near-term scenario is the dollar trading in a range of 99.55 (EMA50 on the weekly USDX)–100.60 (this week's high), with attempts to hold above 100.00. Trump's rhetoric and lack of real progress in negotiations support safe-haven demand, and strong ADP and ISM data confirm the resilience of the US economy.
If the conflict drags on (4–8 weeks), the dollar could continue to strengthen, especially if oil prices remain elevated.
Scenario B (bearish): de-escalation and return to 99.00
This scenario would require tangible signs of negotiation progress and de-escalation. The dollar could lose safe-haven support and retreat to the 99.55–99.12 range (EMA200 on the daily and 4-hour USDX charts). Longer-term strategic investors still expect dollar weakness once the geopolitical premium disappears; a break of 99.12–98.83 (EMA144 on the daily chart) would be an early confirmation of that view.
Conclusion
The US dollar has again demonstrated resilience, recovering above 100.00 after hopes for a quick peace were dashed by Trump's hardline rhetoric and continuing hostilities. Strong macro prints (ADP, ISM) supported the currency, and markets are pricing in a better than 50% chance of a Fed rate hike by year-end.
However, the technical picture raises questions: a potential double top around 100.60 could cap upside, while structural dollar weaknesses — budget deficits, political uncertainty and a gradual trend toward de-dollarization — remain unresolved.
The key zone 99.55–100.60 (with a midline near the EMA200 on the 1-hour USDX chart and the 99.80 mark) will likely be the battleground in the coming days. Tomorrow's employment data (NFP) will be the crucial test: a strong print would bolster hawkish expectations and support the dollar, while weak data could trigger a correction.
Under any scenario, volatility will remain high. Investors should closely monitor diplomatic developments and, most importantly, Friday's NFP report. Once the situation in the Middle East normalizes and oil returns below $90, the dollar could resume weakening. Until the door to peace opens, however, the dollar is likely to hold its ground.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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