05.02.202609:25 Forex Analysis & Reviews: US unemployment report officially postponed

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics said the publication of the January employment report has been moved to February 11.

The data were originally scheduled for release on February 6, i.e., tomorrow, but the publication was delayed because of a partial government shutdown. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the change on Wednesday, shortly after funding for several agencies, including the Department of Labor, was restored.

The impact of the postponement on financial markets is unclear, since investors and analysts watch the employment report closely as one of the principal gauges of the US economy. Employment data are used to assess the current economic backdrop and to forecast future trends. A delay in the report can create some uncertainty in markets because participants lose access to fresh information on labor market conditions. Some believe the postponement could increase volatility in equity and bond markets. Others argue the effect will be limited, noting that investors have alternative data sources to evaluate the economy.

The Bureau said the January consumer price index report, originally scheduled for February 11, will now be released on February 13. Other BLS releases due this week, including the December report on job openings and labor turnover and the employment and unemployment series, have also been rescheduled.

As noted above, the partial shutdown was the primary cause. Although it ended late on Tuesday after President Donald Trump signed a funding bill negotiated with Democrats in the Senate, the interruption affected the timing of several key releases.

In addition to the regular monthly employment and unemployment figures, the January report includes the long-awaited annual benchmark revisions. Those adjustments are expected to show that annual job growth was significantly weaker than initially reported, a finding that could weigh heavily on the dollar.

The postponement of several key reports has so far supported the strength of the US dollar against risk assets.

A technical outlook for EUR/USD suggests that buyers should consider reclaiming 1.1830. That would open the way to test 1.1870. From there, a move to 1.1910 is possible, although advancing beyond that without support from major players would be difficult. The extended target is 1.1950. On a decline, meaningful buying interest is likely around 1.1780. If buyers do not appear there, it would be prudent to wait for a new low at 1.1730 or to open long positions from 1.1700.

As for GBP/USD, buyers of the pound sterling should capture the nearest resistance at 1.3625. Only that will allow them to target 1.3655, above which a breakout would be challenging. The extended target is the area around 1.3690. If the pair falls, bears will try to seize control at 1.3595. If they succeed, a break of that range would deal a serious blow to bullish positions and could push GBP/USD down to 1.3565 with the potential to extend to 1.3540.