09.12.202507:09 Forex Analysis & Reviews: How to Trade the EUR/USD Currency Pair on December 9? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Trade Analysis for Monday:

1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

On Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued to correct within the upward trend. However, at this point, it is not easy to assert that the upward trend remains intact. The price established itself below the ascending trend line yesterday, so formally, the trend has changed to bearish. Nevertheless, we would like to draw the attention of novice traders to one important fact. Market movements remain very weak, so there may be situations where the breach of the trend line occurs not due to a trend reversal but rather due to the prolonged correction and the weakness of the primary movement. Recall that there will be a Federal Reserve meeting this week, and the likelihood of a further decline for the dollar is quite high. Also, on Monday, a report on German industrial production was published. Although this report is not the most significant, it showed a positive outcome above the forecast. The market could have at least slightly raised the EUR/USD pair for form's sake. The flat on the daily timeframe persists, so there is a possibility of growth towards the 1.1800 level (the upper line of the range).

5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

How to Trade on Tuesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to form an upward trend, even though the price has breached the trend line. The overall fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop for the U.S. dollar remains very weak, and thus, we expect further growth. Even technical factors currently support the euro, as the flat on the daily timeframe persists, and after a reversal near the lower boundary, it is reasonable to expect growth towards the upper boundary.

On Tuesday, beginner traders may once again trade in the 1.1655-1.1666 range, as there are no other viable options. A price rebound from this area would again allow for short positions with targets at 1.1584-1.1591. If the price settles above this area, long positions may be initiated with a target at 1.1745.

On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to consider include 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1550, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, and 1.1970-1.1988. On Tuesday, no significant events or reports are scheduled in the Eurozone, while the U.S. will release relatively important reports on JOLTs and the number of job openings, as well as the weekly ADP report on changes in private sector employment. These data may provoke a market reaction.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair may form numerous false signals or none at all. At the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades are opened during the period between the beginning of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferred to trade only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by the trend line or channel, using signals from the MACD indicator.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips), they should be viewed as a support or resistance area.
7. Upon moving 15 pips in the right direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

Chart Explanations:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line; a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is important to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to long-term trading success.