21.11.202507:12 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Pay Attention to on November 21? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

A considerable number of macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Friday. In the European Union, Germany, the UK, and the US, indices of business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors will be published. It is worth noting that the first estimates (which will be published today) are significant for the market, but in the US, there are more important business activity indicators – ISM. Additionally, a retail sales report will be released in the UK, and in the US, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index will be published. All these reports have a medium degree of significance but can provoke a measured market reaction.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

A considerable number of fundamental events are again scheduled for Friday. We have upcoming speeches from representatives of the Federal Reserve, including Barr, Jefferson, Williams, Collins, and Logan. However, we are already well acquainted with the Fed's Monetary Committee's stance on the key interest rate. This stance is that the central bank wants to keep the rate unchanged in December, but the final decision will be made after the November employment and unemployment data, as well as inflation data, become available. Therefore, any assumptions about what decision the Fed may make on December 10 can only be constructed at the beginning of December. Today, there will also be a speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, but this event does not arouse particular interest.

General Conclusions:

During the last trading day of the week, both currency pairs can exhibit absolutely any movements, as the macroeconomic backdrop will be abundant today. The euro has a great trading area around 1.1527-1.1531. The British pound is trading around 1.3096-1.3107. However, it should be noted that market volatility is low at the moment, regardless of the strength and volume of macroeconomic data.

Key Principles of My Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is considered based on the time taken to form the signal (bounce or breach of a level). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades have been opened around a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can create numerous false signals or may not form them at all. In any case, it's best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trading deals are opened during the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all deals should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade based on signals from the MACD indicator only when there is good volatility and a trend that is confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (between 5 and 20 pips), they should be treated as an area of support or resistance.
7. After a 15-20-pip move in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What the Charts Show:

• Support and resistance price levels are targets for opening buy or sell positions. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.
• Red lines indicate trend channels or trend lines, reflecting the current trend and indicating the preferred trading direction.
• The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — histogram and signal line — is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important announcements and reports (always available in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is recommended to trade with maximum caution or to exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Beginners trading on the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money management is key to long-term success in trading.