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The outcome of the Fed meeting was, as expected, a 0.25% rate cut. But, as I noted in the previous article, all the attention was on the central bank's published forecasts for key macroeconomic indicators through the end of this year and the next two years.
It was precisely the forecasts, not the fact of the rate cut — which had already been priced into asset values — that gave significant support to the main beneficiary of this theme, which has been dominating the markets in recent weeks.
First, let's look at the forecasts. The main point is that the Fed projects further rate cuts amid consumer inflation stabilizing around 3%. At the press conference, Chair Jerome Powell described the easing decision as "reducing risk management." He also made it clear that this reduction cannot, at least for now, be considered the start of a deeper rate-cutting cycle.
In effect, the outcome of the meeting was not only a 0.25% cut — bringing the federal funds target range to 4.00–4.25% — but also an expectation of two more cuts before year-end.
Naturally, this wave provided significant support to U.S. equities, with stock indices once again hitting fresh all-time highs.
The U.S. dollar index fell locally to its June 30 low but later rebounded and is currently holding above the 97.00 mark.
So the question arises: why didn't the dollar collapse against the basket of major currencies, given that rates were cut and more cuts are expected?
This can only be explained by the weakness of the counterpart currencies traded against the dollar on Forex, due to the fragile state of their economies. In addition, one must account for the burdensome restrictions imposed by Donald Trump in the form of tariffs and obligations to finance the recovery of the U.S. economy.
So what can we expect in today's markets?
I believe demand for U.S. equities will continue to grow. The dollar will likely consolidate around just above 97 points on the index. The cryptocurrency market will remain in a broad sideways trend.
Overall, I assess the market backdrop as moderately positive.
Gold is correcting downward after reaching another all-time high. It is quite possible that, on the back of technical overbought conditions, after falling toward support at 3619.60, it may reverse and aim for 3700.00. A suitable entry level for buying gold could be around 1.1710.
The pair has found support near 1.3580. It may turn upward and, after a local technical pullback, rise toward 1.3750 on expectations of two more Fed rate cuts this year. A suitable entry level for buying could be around 1.3620.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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