31.07.202509:09 Forex Analysis & Reviews: The Market Took Wishful Thinking for Reality

"I heard the Fed is going to cut rates in September." Once again, Donald Trump is presenting wishful thinking as fact. The futures market, on the contrary, reduced the probability of monetary easing at the next FOMC meeting from 65% to 50% after Jerome Powell gave no signals of such a move. The Federal Reserve Chair's reluctance to drop hints led to a decline in the S&P 500. Neither strong corporate earnings nor progress in trade negotiations helped.

It seems the United States is using a universal approach toward different countries. It demands zero tariffs for itself while raising import duties on partners to 15% or more. At the same time, other conditions are imposed. For example, South Korea has pledged to spend 100 billion dollars on energy imports from the U.S. and 350 billion dollars in investments into the American economy. The latter is booming. Trump reacted positively to the 3% GDP acceleration in the second quarter, yet still urged the Fed to cut rates.

The reduction in trade and political uncertainty is having a favorable effect on volatility and supports the continuation of the upward trend in the S&P 500.

Uncertainty and VIX Volatility Index Trends

Unfortunately, neither the strong GDP and ADP private sector employment data, nor the agreement with South Korea, nor Meta Platforms' and Microsoft's intentions to boost investments in artificial intelligence technologies were enough to prevent the broad stock index from falling. Investors were disappointed by the Fed's unwillingness to hint at a federal funds rate cut in September and are already bracing for a season that is historically unfavorable for equities.

In August and September, after returning from summer vacations, companies review their portfolios, increase their holdings of defensive assets, prepare budgets for the next fiscal year, and tighten their belts. As a result, over the past 10 years, the S&P 500 has ended August in positive territory only five times.

S&P 500 Performance in August and September

The lack of a positive market response to good news raises some concerns. Moreover, the market had expected that Powell would not dance to Trump's tune and was factoring in the positions of the two dissenters on the FOMC. That's exactly how it played out.

Could the S&P 500's reaction to recent events be evidence that many of the bullish factors are already priced in? If so, it's time to prepare for a deeper correction. Upcoming U.S. labor market data will likely offer some clues.

From a technical standpoint, the daily chart of the S&P 500 shows a pullback toward the long-term uptrend. Key tests will be the pivot level at 6325 and the fair value at 6260. A rebound from these levels would justify forming long positions. Conversely, a breakout through key support levels would allow bears to extend the correction and could serve as a signal to sell.