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On Thursday, gold (XAU/USD) failed to continue its recovery above the $4,400 level. At the same time, the metal is holding firmly above the weekly low established on Wednesday, as investors are closely awaiting the release of U.S. inflation data. Later today, the Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released, followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday. These data will be important indicators for assessing the Federal Reserve's (Fed) future monetary policy, which will inevitably affect U.S. dollar prices and provide new momentum for gold price movements.
The release of August Consumer Price Index (CPI) data this Friday will be a key factor determining the Fed's interest rate decision on September 16. High CPI readings would virtually guarantee a rate hike in September and strengthen the dollar, while lower readings could strengthen the case for keeping the rate unchanged and make the dollar vulnerable to shifts in market expectations toward a more accommodative Fed policy.
In particular, oil prices reached a new three-month high today amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. Recent events, such as Iran's attack on 10 vessels near the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. statements that five Iranian oil tankers had been sunk in the Gulf of Oman, are increasing concerns about prolonged disruptions to oil supplies from the Middle East and continuing to support oil prices. This, in turn, strengthens the case for tighter monetary policy by other major central banks. Traders have already fully priced in the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB), whose decision will be announced today, and by the Bank of Japan at its September 17–18 meeting.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is also considering the possibility of raising rates at the end of the month. At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields remain high due to market disappointment with the U.S. Treasury Department's announcement of plans to buy back up to $6 billion of Treasury securities with maturities of 10 to 20 years, compared with the previously planned $2 billion. Market expectations were for at least $10 billion.
The strengthening Japanese yen, driven by expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Bank of Japan, is also limiting bullish momentum in USD/JPY, which in turn supports the precious metal.
From a technical perspective, gold is holding above the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) but below the 200-period simple moving average (SMA), resulting in neutral price dynamics with signs of slowing growth. The oscillators are mixed, indicating a lack of a clear direction for XAU/USD. Resistance: $4,450. Support: the 100-day SMA.
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