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The EUR/USD pair had been declining for six days, but the bears' advance has now come to an end. For five full days, the US dollar has been unable to convince traders that further purchases of the currency are justified. Imbalance 21 has not been invalidated, while imbalance 20 triggered a price reaction. The Nonfarm Payrolls report released today somewhat spoiled the picture for the bulls. Following a series of weak reports on the labor market and business activity, it showed a genuinely strong result. In August, 162,000 new jobs were created, while traders had not expected more than 56,000. It does not matter that this figure may be revised in a month. What matters is that today the previous month's figure was revised from -29,000 to +21,000. Thus, the Nonfarm Payrolls report should have triggered a very strong rise in the US currency. This is not only because the labor market itself finally showed a positive result, but also because the chances of FOMC monetary policy tightening have now increased. Of course, I do not want to draw conclusions about the state of the labor market based on a single monthly report, but nevertheless, ahead of the September meeting, this is a good argument in favor of a rate hike. However, I still believe that the Fed will not take a hawkish step in September, and the dollar did not rise today by an amount commensurate with the payrolls report and the prospect of future monetary policy tightening.
Overall, in my view, the fundamental backdrop continues to fully support the bulls. First, it is clearly visible on any chart that the euro currency began its rise from relatively low levels, compared with its average price over the past year. This means that it still has upward potential. Second, the market continues to doubt that the FOMC will tighten monetary policy in September, regardless of what Worsh says. Third, economic data from the United States have recently brought nothing but disappointment. Fourth, geopolitics no longer supports the bears or the dollar. Fifth, the ECB may tighten monetary policy once more this autumn. Sixth, the US Treasury has decided to increase its purchases of long-term bonds, which reduces demand for the dollar. Seventh, a new trade war between the United States and Canada and between the United States and China may begin in the near future. Eighth, the US labor market is contracting, which could put an end to Worsh's hawkish initiatives. Therefore, I currently see no reason whatsoever for a bearish advance.
US labor market data have shown weak readings over the past 4–6 months, inflation has slowed over the past two months, and GDP growth has decelerated over the past three quarters. These three factors make me doubt that the FOMC will raise rates not only in September but also by the end of the year. In my view, the bears' only opportunity at present lies in a new escalation in the Middle East, rather than in isolated reports.
The current technical picture indicates that the bullish momentum is being maintained. Price has completely filled the latest bullish imbalance 21 and even touched the previous bullish imbalance 20. The combined reaction to these two patterns could bring the bulls back into the market, and the upward move could resume. The bears will gain technical grounds for an advance only if both patterns are invalidated. The euro currency also has to save the pound, which does not have such a strong support zone.
The economic backdrop on Friday allowed the bears to launch a powerful attack. However, as of the time of writing, I can say only one thing: the reaction was extremely weak. Traders refrained from buying the US dollar, and it rose in value only nominally. Thus, it appears that the market no longer believes in FOMC policy tightening.
There are still plenty of reasons for the bulls to attack in 2026, and even the outbreak of war in the Middle East has not reduced their number. Structurally and globally, Trump's policy, which led to a significant decline in the dollar last year, has not changed. At present, I see no serious supporting factors for the US currency, despite the FOMC's formally hawkish stance. Geopolitics, which supported demand for the US currency for most of the first half of 2026, is no longer doing so. The conflict in the Middle East remains unresolved, but there have been no new hostilities from either Iran or the United States.
Economic calendar for the United States and the European Union:
On September 7, the economic calendar contains two entries, neither of which is of particular interest. The economic backdrop may have little or no impact on market sentiment on Monday.
EUR/USD forecast and trading advice:
In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend that has taken a year-long pause. The fundamental backdrop changed sharply in favor of the bears six months ago, but the trend itself cannot be considered canceled or completed. In the long term, I would say that the pair is in a range. However, the range does not invalidate the broader bullish trend. Therefore, the bulls may well continue their advance after two liquidity sweeps of clearly defined lows. At present, bullish traders have an excellent support level in the form of imbalance 21, where a new bullish signal may form. We have already seen a precise rebound from imbalance 20. I consider the levels of 1.1797 and 1.1850 to be the targets for a new rise in the euro currency.
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