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Money likes quiet, but the crypto market hasn't known it for some time. Bitcoin remains under pressure amid growing concerns over the breakdown of Strategy's financing mechanism. At the same time, rising expectations for increases in the federal funds rate are weakening investor demand for risky assets.
The story began promisingly. In late 2024, Strategy's shares were approaching the psychologically important $500 mark, and its strategy of buying Bitcoin with raised capital inspired a whole host of imitators. Following in Michael Saylor's footsteps were Metaplanet, BitMine, Twenty One Capital and SharpLink.
However, BTC/USD has fallen almost in half from its October peak last year, and not all firms copying Saylor's idea have managed to profit. They are now bracing for an imminent collapse.
Bitcoin and Strategy dynamics
Strategy's mechanism looked flawless on paper: the company sells preferred securities at a par value of $100, immediately using the proceeds to buy Bitcoin, and investors in return receive a double-digit annual dividend yield. However, since May 15, the date of the last payment, the securities have not once traded at par. By the end of the week of June 18, their price briefly dipped below $108.
In practice, this means the company is raising capital at a loss — the effective yield it ends up paying is higher than the advertised rate. It creates a vicious circle: the lower the prices of the preferred shares, the more expensive the financing becomes, and the higher the risks across the capital structure.
Strategy doesn't have many options left. Either it sells a large amount of Bitcoin or common shares to bring the preferred securities closer to par, or it will have to watch "every part of the capitalization structure melt away due to uncertainty."
What price will Strategy and its followers pay for the experiment of debt-financing cryptocurrency? The collapse of the company and its peers could cause a serious loss of confidence in the entire crypto industry, leading to a further collapse in BTC/USD.
The macroeconomic backdrop also contributes to Bitcoin's oblivion. Rising expectations of Fed rate hikes are hitting not only Bitcoin but all risky assets, creating a harsh environment for cryptocurrencies. The market could push the timing of monetary policy tightening into July. That would lead to higher Treasury yields, strengthen the US dollar and extend the crypto winter for BTC/USD.
Technically, on the daily Bitcoin chart, there is consolidation near a fair value of $63,400. A breakout of resistance at the pivot level of $65,800, followed by activation of a 1-2-3 reversal, pattern could provide a basis for buying. Conversely, a drop below key supports at $62,200 and $60,700 would increase the risk of the downtrend resuming and bring selling BTC/USD back into focus.
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