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The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD pair has taken on a somewhat less desirable form, but it still raises no questions. There is still no talk of canceling the upward trend segment that began in January of last year; only the internal wave structure is occasionally being adjusted. In my view, the pair has completed the formation of global wave 4 (lower chart). If this assumption is correct, the market is currently forming wave 5, which may turn out to be quite extended, with targets reaching up to the 25th level.
The internal wave structure of the presumed wave 5 is somewhat ambiguous (upper chart). The upward wave sequence cannot be considered impulsive due to rather strong corrective waves. Therefore, it is currently interpreted as a-b-c-d-e. However, if wave 5 turns out to be extended, its internal structure will also become quite complex. If this is indeed the case, the wave labeling will transform more than once. In any case, I expect the EUR/USD pair to resume its upward movement, and the corrective a-b-c-d-e structure already looks quite complete.
The EUR/USD rate barely changed on Thursday, and it is unlikely that anything will change by the end of the day. For the second day in a row, market participants are clearly resting after the extremely eventful Monday and Tuesday. I cannot say that they are waiting for anything specific, although many things could now be expected. Tomorrow the United States will release the Nonfarm Payrolls report and the unemployment rate, while the Eurozone will publish fourth-quarter GDP data. These three reports may point traders in a direction.
In a certain sense, the EUR/USD pair is once again at a crossroads. At the moment, the five-wave a-b-c-d-e structure looks fully completed, which means the formation of an upward wave sequence should begin. However, will the news background allow the market to increase demand for the euro? Only tomorrow's U.S. labor market reports and the next events in the Middle East can answer this question. Despite the fact that the war is not subsiding and missile strikes occur daily in both directions, the market cannot react by buying the U.S. dollar after every missile attack. At the moment, market participants have already priced in the complete halt of LNG production in Qatar, strikes on refineries in the region, the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, rising oil and gas prices, and the threat of an energy crisis not only in Europe but in other countries of the world. If this list does not expand, then there are no new reasons to increase demand for the U.S. currency. If tomorrow the U.S. labor market data turn out weaker than market expectations, the formation of an upward trend segment may begin.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the pair continues to build an upward trend segment. Donald Trump's policy and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain significant factors for the long-term decline of the U.S. currency. The targets of the current trend segment may extend up to the 25th level. At the moment, I believe that the pair remains within the global wave 5, therefore I expect the quotes to rise in the first half of 2026. The corrective structure a-b-c-d-e may end at any moment, as it already looks convincing. I believe that it now makes sense to search for areas and levels for new purchases with targets located near the levels of 1.2195 and 1.2367, which corresponds to 161.8% and 200.0% according to Fibonacci.
On a smaller scale, the entire upward trend segment is visible. The wave structure is not the most standard, as corrective waves have different sizes. For example, the senior wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 in wave 3. However, this also happens. I remind you that it is best to identify clear structures on charts rather than necessarily tying everything to each individual wave. At the moment, the upward wave structure does not raise doubts.
The main principles of my analysis:
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