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The price test at 1.3240 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well above the zero line, which limited the pair's upside potential. For that reason, I did not sell the pound. Shorting the rebound from 1.3260 allowed taking about 25 pips of profit.
The pound remained in the dollar's shadow after the University of Michigan consumer-sentiment index in the US rose to 48.1 in September from 47.8 in August. The data showed US consumers view conditions slightly better than a month earlier. For the market, this supports the view that the US economy is withstanding the pressure of high rates and that the Federal Reserve can maintain a cautious, hawkish stance longer. The implication for GBP/USD is clear: when the dollar is supported by domestic US data, the pound — more sensitive to global risk appetite — loses room to rally.
Today, the pound has no UK macro releases, so its morning moves will depend on remarks from Sir David Ramsden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England for Markets and Banking. Officials at this level typically comment on the persistence of inflation and its core components, assess labor-market tightness and explain the data criteria the central bank uses for rate decisions, emphasizing data dependence and caution. Markets usually look for hints in such speeches about how long rates will remain elevated. In my view, a hawkish tone is unlikely today, so pressure on GBP/USD is likely to persist.
For intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
No 1: I plan to buy the pound today around the entry area of 1.3246 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.3260 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3260, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip counter-move). Expect pound gains today only after a hawkish stance from officials. Important: before buying, ensure the MACD is above zero and has just begun rising.
No 2: I also plan to buy the pound if the price tests 1.3233 twice in a row while MACD is in the oversold area. This would limit downside potential and trigger an upward reversal. Expect moves to 1.3246 and 1.3260.
No 1: I plan to sell the pound after 1.3233 is breached (red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline. The sellers' key target will be 1.3211, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip counter-move). Bad news will put pressure back on the pound. Important: before selling, ensure the MACD is below zero and has just begun falling.
No 2: I also plan to sell the pound if the price tests 1.3246 twice in a row while MACD is in the overbought area. This would limit upside potential and trigger a reversal down. Expect declines toward 1.3233 and 1.3211.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of significant fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not employ money management practices and trade large volumes.
Also, remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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