24.09.202608:54 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBPUSD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on September 24. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Trade Review and Tips for Trading the British Pound

The price test at 1.3275 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving down from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point to sell the pound. As a result, the pair fell toward the target level of 1.3236.

The US PMI for September exceeded all expectations: the composite index jumped to 58.4 from 56.0 in August, hitting a 62-month high, and economic growth accelerated. Employment in the US increased at the fastest pace since June 2022, while companies' input costs surged by the most in four years amid expensive oil, which, in my view, only strengthens the Federal Reserve's position to continue tightening policy without immediate risk to growth. For the pound, that contrast looked particularly unfortunate against the British PMI released the same day, which fell to a three-month low due to weakness in services, a drop in export orders, and continued employment declines.

Thus GBP/USD finds itself squeezed between two divergent growth stories: the US's clear acceleration and the UK's obvious cooling, and I do not rule out that this divergence will be the determining factor for the pair in the coming days, unless the Bank of England offers unexpectedly decisive rhetoric to counterbalance it.

Today's calendar for the pound in the first half of the day looks modest: CBI retail sales will be released, and Sarah Breeden from the Bank of England's Financial Policy Committee will speak. In my view, neither item is likely to serve as a significant catalyst for GBP/USD, since CBI data provide only a preliminary guide to consumer demand, and Breeden's remit is not directly tied to rate decisions.

That said, there is some room for a recovery for the pair given the scale of the recent sell-off against the dollar. After such a sharp downward move, the market often needs a pause for consolidation, and I do not rule out a modest GBP/USD bounce in the first half of the day due to technical oversold conditions rather than today's data.

For intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario No 1: I plan to buy the pound today if the price reaches the entry area around 1.3260 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.3291 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3291, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip counter-move). Expect pound gains today only after good UK data. Important: before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above zero and has just begun rising from it.

Scenario No 2: I also plan to buy the pound if the price tests 1.3229 twice in a row while MACD is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. Expect moves up to 1.3260 and 1.3291.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario No 1: I plan to sell the pound after the 1.3229 level is breached (red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The sellers' key target will be 1.3186, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip counter-move). Bad news will put pressure back on the pound. Important: before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below zero and has just begun to fall from it.

Scenario No 2: I also plan to sell the pound if the price tests 1.3260 twice in a row while MACD is in the overbought area. This would limit upside potential and trigger a downward reversal. Expect falls toward 1.3229 and 1.3186.

What to Look for on the Chart:

• Thin Green Line – Entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick Green Line – Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin Red Line – Entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick Red Line – Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of significant fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not employ money management practices and trade large volumes.

Also, remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.