24.09.202605:57 Forex Analysis & Reviews: "Deal Is Close" for the 42nd Time

The American president continues to amaze with his own statements. Yesterday, the US leader said a deal with Iran is close to being signed, and this is roughly the 42nd time Trump has expected a speedy peace agreement with Tehran over the past seven months. It is worth recalling that Donald Trump has already said about twenty times that the war with Iran would end soon, and he promised to resolve the conflict between Kyiv and Moscow in 24 hours. Essentially, the American president repeats the same thing again and again, and someday his words will come true — simply based on probability theory.

Trump now resembles a casino player who keeps betting on the same number. He will be wrong 150 times, but on the 151st time he will hit the jackpot. Therefore, we would not take the claims about the closeness of a peace deal with Iran seriously. No confirmations have come from Iran. Rather, the opposite. Iran's top officials recently sent Washington a list of conditions for opening the Strait of Hormuz, which include lifting the naval blockade of Iranian ports, withdrawing US troops from the region, lifting sanctions, and unfreezing Iranian assets. Thus, Iran's conditions for ending the war have not changed. If Trump was previously unwilling to meet them, what is the probability he will do so now? The US president literally said days ago that the war with Iran could end after the congressional elections. Therefore, "a deal is close" in practice may mean "next year."

It is also worth noting that Washington continues to insist on Iran's non-nuclear status, which Iran absolutely does not accept. Simply put, Iran's list of ultimatums has a very low probability of approval in the White House. In fact, Trump's single demand has no chance of being satisfied in Tehran. So what kind of deal are we even talking about?

By the way, no one currently possesses information about what exactly Iran and the US negotiated or agreed in New York within the framework of the UN General Assembly. Stephen Witkoff and Jared Kushner have never shown themselves to be talented negotiators, although they continue active dialogue with Tehran, Kyiv, and Moscow. Thus, we are almost certain that Trump simply put on an old record. The White House leader keeps repeating the same thing, but it makes little sense anymore. No one in the world takes the US president at his word. Therefore, the war may indeed end soon, but one must prepare for the worst. Because there are no grounds for optimism now. Of course, we allow that in reality there may be some progress in negotiations that no one speaks about publicly. But we analyze facts, not rumors, guesses, or assumptions.

Trading Recommendations for EUR/USD:

The EUR/USD pair continues to move downward, but we still view the decline as a correction before a new upward trend. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains negative, but in 2026, geopolitics first, and then the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, provided strong support to the US currency. When the price is below the moving average, consider short positions with targets of 1.1353 and 1.1331. Above the moving average, long positions are relevant with targets of 1.1536 and 1.1597.

Trading Recommendations for GBP/USD:

The GBP/USD pair continues its illogical downward movement. Trump's policies will continue to pressure the US economy, so we do not expect long-term gains from the US dollar. 2026 has been positive for the dollar so far due to geopolitics and inflation, which forced capital to seek refuge and prompted the Fed to return to tightening monetary policy. However, on the weekly timeframe, a flat range between 1.3150 and 1.3780 persists within a four-year uptrend, which allows for expecting pound appreciation in the medium term. Consider long positions with targets of 1.3428 and 1.3489 when price is above the moving average. Price below the moving average allows bearish trading, with targets of 1.3184 and 1.3163.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, it means the trend is currently strong;

The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted at present;

Murray levels are target levels for moves and corrections;

Volatility levels (red lines) are the probable price channel within which the pair will spend the next 24 hours based on current volatility indicators;

The CCI indicator – its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.