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The GBP/USD pair also resumed a downward move on Monday, forming a new descending trend line. There is no need to guess why the dollar is rising now. Although confidence in Federal Reserve tightening remains lacking and the market has already largely priced in the most "hawkish" outcome, the dollar continues to strengthen, and the Bank of England's monetary policy is of little concern to traders. Last week the market ignored the European Central Bank's rate increase for the second time, and this week it may similarly ignore the BoE's results. Note that the BoE is unlikely to raise the key rate at this meeting, but its tone could become more hawkish — which is unsurprising given the likely acceleration of inflation globally this autumn and winter. But as already noted, the market now focuses almost exclusively on the Federal Reserve and its need to be "hawkish" for an extended period.
On the 5-minute TF on Monday, two buy trading signals were formed. Price bounced twice from the 1.3456–1.3476 area, allowing novice traders to open long positions. The signals duplicated each other, so only one trade could realistically be opened. By the end of the day, the price rose about 15–20 pips, enough at most to move the stop-loss to break-even.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues a downward corrective trend that may end soon. In our view, sterling should continue to rise in the medium term under any scenario, but it is currently undergoing a correction. On the weekly TF, the move from the lower boundary of the sideways channel toward the upper boundary continues and may not be complete. Thus, we expect the northbound impulse to resume.
On Tuesday, novice traders may consider short positions targeting 1.3380–1.3386 if price consolidates below 1.3456–1.3476. Open long positions targeting 1.3587–1.3598 if price bounces off the 1.3456–1.3476 area.
On the 5-minute TF, you can trade the levels 1.3259–1.3267, 1.3319–1.3331, 1.3380–1.3386, 1.3456–1.3476, 1.3587–1.3598, 1.3631–1.3641, 1.3695, 1.3741. On Tuesday, the UK will publish unemployment and wages reports, and the US calendar shows only the minor weekly ADP report. In our view, the Fed meeting will remain the market's main focus today.
Price levels (areas) of support and resistance serve as targets for opening buy or sell trades or as sources of signals.
Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that show the current trend and the preferred trading direction.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — the histogram and signal line — is an auxiliary indicator that can also provide signals.
Important speeches and reports (listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence currency pair movements. Therefore, during their release, traders should approach trading with utmost caution, or exit the market to avoid sudden reversals against the preceding move.
Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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