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The test of the 159.43 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, confirming the validity of the entry point for buying the dollar. However, the pair did not make a significant upward move.
In the second half of the day, the market is awaiting the U.S. weekly initial jobless claims data and the goods trade balance. Jobless claims provide a fresh snapshot of the labor market and influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest-rate policy, while the trade balance reflects export and import dynamics primarily over the longer term. Both indicators are considered secondary, so a strong move should not be expected. For the yen, the dollar's behavior will remain the key factor, as strong labor-market data could push USD/JPY higher by widening the policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the much more cautious Bank of Japan, while a weak result would allow the yen to regain some ground. This policy divergence continues to set the tone for the pair on days without major economic releases.
As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point around 159.60 is reached (the green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 159.96 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 159.96, I will exit the long position and open a short position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level. The pair can rise today, but the upward potential is rather limited. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just begun to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 159.40 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal higher. A rise toward the opposite levels of 159.60 and 159.96 can be expected.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after the 159.40 level is broken (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 159.15, where I will exit the short position and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Pressure on the pair will return today if the central bank intervenes. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just begun to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 159.60 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal lower. A decline toward the opposite levels of 159.40 and 159.15 can be expected.
Important. Beginner Forex traders need to be very cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large positions.
And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for an intraday trader from the outset.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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