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At the same time, experts report that Trump's latest initiatives are a cry not only of desperation but also for help. Many military experts believe that the U.S. lacks the resources for a prolonged siege of Iran. A siege is neither simple nor cheap, and the U.S. federal budget is already under strain. The national debt has surpassed $40 trillion. In November, the Republican Party is likely to lose the congressional elections, after which the Democrats will block any decisions and initiatives from Trump. And certainly, no one will allocate additional funds for warfare to Trump.
Therefore, Trump needs to hurry to conclude the conflict with Iran before the congressional elections, preferably with a victory. This is precisely why the sharp and unexpected economic blockade of Iran has been initiated, involving all possible entities. However, as mentioned, the chances that anyone will support Trump and fear sanctions are exceedingly low.
It is also worth mentioning Iran's other trading partners. For instance, Turkey is quite a large importer of Iranian goods, while India, conversely, supplies a considerable amount of its products and food to Iran. These countries would also need to sever ties with Tehran to their economic detriment, as Trump desires.
In my view, even if some of Iran's allies indeed cut off all relations with it, this list will be extremely small and will not lead to the severing of all financial arteries. Experts also remind us that Trump often throws around loud threats that are subsequently unsupported by any action. Therefore, in the current situation, we can only wait to see whether Washington will go all-in while holding nothing but twos and threes, or whether it will once again step back.
Naturally, all events related to Washington's international politics do not boost confidence in the American currency. Consequently, as long as the White House maintains a protectionist policy, it will be extremely difficult for the dollar to expect growth. In 2026, the U.S.-Iran war served the dollar an invaluable service, but in August it became clear that the market had already priced in this factor, and the dollar began to lose ground again. According to wave analysis, both EUR/USD and GBP/USD have begun developing upward trend segments, so the dollar's decline could be prolonged.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward segment of the trend and, in the shorter term, has presumably transitioned to a new set of upward waves. In my opinion, now is an excellent time to establish long positions. Wave 5 in C has taken a truncated form. If the downward segment of the trend that began on January 28 does not take on a longer, five-wave form (which would require a strong news backdrop in favor of the dollar), the EUR/USD instrument is at the very beginning of a new, long upward trend segment, with targets extending up to the 25 figure.
The wave picture for the GBP/USD instrument has taken on a completely clear form. We now see a clear corrective structure A-B-C on the charts, which is complete. Therefore, I expect to establish an upward set of waves that take on an impulsive appearance and coincide with the impulsive structure of the EUR/USD instrument. If this is the case, the pound is currently in the third wave, and the targets for the entire trend segment are above the 39 figure. In the coming months, I anticipate trading only to the upside.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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