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Gold (XAU/USD) managed to recover some of its losses from the psychologically important $4,000 level, or its lowest level in more than a week, supported by a modest weakening of the US dollar.
In the latest developments in the Middle East, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched a surprise missile attack on US forces in the region on Tuesday evening, firing several ballistic missiles. US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported that all Iranian missiles were successfully intercepted, adding that American forces remain vigilant and on heightened alert. Later, CENTCOM announced that US and Saudi forces had carried out strikes against multiple terrorist logistics and weapons facilities in eastern Iraq in response to more than 30 drone attacks over the past three days by Iran-backed groups.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump reiterated that if diplomatic efforts fail to bring about a swift resolution to the crisis, the United States could resume decisive military action against Iran, including strikes on key Iranian infrastructure. This continues to support the geopolitical risk premium and should underpin demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset.
Additional support for the dollar comes from concerns over major disruptions to global energy supplies, which have triggered a sharp rise in oil prices, revived inflation risks, and strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may deliver at least one additional interest rate hike.
From a technical perspective, gold remains in a bearish consolidation phase. For bulls to regain upward potential, the first step is to break above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). They would then need to establish a foothold above the $4,100 psychological level, overcome the $4,150–4,200 resistance level, and break above the 50-day SMA to strengthen the bullish outlook. However, as momentum oscillators remain in negative territory, bears continue to hold the advantage. Consequently, the path of least resistance for gold remains to the downside.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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