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Bitcoin and Ethereum had a strong recovery yesterday. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $64,000, while Ethereum is targeting the level of $1,780.
However, all of this is not very significant for the overall bearish market. The current bounce is better viewed as a recovery from a bearish decline rather than a full trend reversal, despite improved demand and historically strong seasonality in July.
July is traditionally one of the most consistently positive months for Bitcoin, and this effect is particularly noticeable in bear market years. In 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin rose by about 20% and 17% in July, respectively, even though the overall trend remained weak. As Bitcoin entered July 2026 right after hitting a cyclical low, this seasonal pattern shifts short-term risks toward further growth.
Nevertheless, caution is warranted in the overall assessment of market conditions. Many indices and metrics that combine on-chain and market indicators are currently deep in bearish territory, significantly below the levels needed for sustainable growth and a full bull market. This cautious assessment aligns well with a recent conclusion from JPMorgan that the main long-term risk for Bitcoin lies not in one-off sales like those conducted by Strategy but in structural shifts across the entire crypto ecosystem.
Therefore, those who believe a bull market is imminent may soon be disappointed.
As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $63,900, targeting growth to the level of $64,600. Around $64,600, I plan to exit my buy positions and sell immediately on a retracement. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the positive zone.
Scenario #2: Bitcoin can be bought from the lower boundary of $63,600 if there is no market reaction to its breakout in the opposite direction toward the levels of $63,900 and $64,600.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $63,600, targeting a decline to the level of $63,000. Around $63,000, I plan to exit my sell positions and buy immediately on a retracement. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the negative zone.
Scenario #2: Bitcoin can be sold from the upper boundary of $63,900 if there is no market reaction to its breakout in the opposite direction toward the levels of $63,600 and $63,000.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $1,773, targeting growth to the level of $1,789. Around $1,789, I plan to exit my buy positions and sell immediately on a retracement. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the positive zone.
Scenario #2: Ethereum can be bought from the lower boundary of $1,763 if there is no market reaction to its breakout in the opposite direction toward the levels of $1,773 and $1,789.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $1,763, targeting a decline to the level of $1,747. Around $1,747, I plan to exit my sell positions and buy immediately on a retracement. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the negative zone.
Scenario #2: Ethereum can be sold from the upper boundary of $1,773 if there is no market reaction to its breakout in the opposite direction toward the levels of $1,763 and $1,747.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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