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The test of the 1.3358 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair gained only 20 points.
June's U.S. economic reports caused significant volatility in the foreign exchange market. News of a substantial slowdown in hiring, despite the notable decline in the unemployment rate to 4.2%, came as an unexpected and concerning signal. Against the backdrop of a weaker U.S. dollar, the British pound has continued to strengthen with confidence. The latest U.S. labor market data could have long-term implications for both the U.S. economy and the dollar, giving the current GBP/USD rally a good chance of continuing in the near term.
However, this will require supportive economic data. During the first half of today's session, investors will focus on the release of key macroeconomic indicators. The Services PMI and the Composite PMI will serve as important gauges of the current state of the UK economy. Stronger readings may indicate that the economy is recovering steadily from recent challenges, while weaker figures would point to persistent difficulties and a potential slowdown.
The day's final key event will be a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. His remarks will be closely analyzed for signals regarding the future direction of monetary policy.
As for my intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenario No. 1 and Scenario No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound if the price reaches the entry level of 1.3381 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.3428 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3428, I plan to close long positions and open short positions, expecting a 30-35 point move in the opposite direction. Further gains in the pound should be expected only if the UK economic data comes in stronger than anticipated.
Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just begun moving upward.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound if the price tests 1.3361 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a bullish market reversal. In this case, a move toward 1.3381 and 1.3428 can be expected.
Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after the price breaks below 1.3361 (red line on the chart), which is expected to trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The primary target for sellers will be 1.3326, where I intend to close short positions and immediately open long positions, anticipating a 20-25 point rebound. Weak economic data will increase pressure on the pound.
Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just begun moving downward.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound if the price tests 1.3381 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a bearish market reversal. In this case, a decline toward 1.3361 and 1.3326 can be expected.
Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when entering the market. It is generally advisable to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you trade large positions without applying proper money management.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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