25.06.202609:57 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Bitcoin could hit bottom at $42,000–44,000 this autumn

For now, while Bitcoin is again trying and failing to break below the $60,000 mark, the market is debating where the actual bottom will form — the point after which bears will calm down and the market will find solid footing.

Jiang Zhuoer, founder of one of the largest Bitcoin mining pools in history, BTC.TOP, recently said in an interview that Bitcoin could form a bottom in the $42,000–44,000 range this autumn, and he expects the end of the bear cycle in the October–December 2026 period. The forecast fits well with the analytical context of recent weeks: the CEO of CryptoQuant pointed to a possible rollback to $48,000 by the CVDD model. The average buy price among investors at about $53,000 has historically been tested before reversals. On top of that, the Bull?Bear Market metric flagged an active bear phase with no signs of an approaching bottom. Jiang's estimate matches that narrative: not just "lower," but $42,000–44,000, and not just "later," but October–December.

The key argument supporting this forecast is Strategy's mNAV indicator — the ratio of the company's market capitalization to the value of its Bitcoin reserves. This indicator has already fallen to 0.72, nearly matching the 2022 low — one of the worst periods in crypto history, coinciding with the FTX collapse. A drop in mNAV to such levels indicates the market values Strategy's shares at a discount to the value of its Bitcoin, reflecting deep pessimism about the whole crypto market. Jiang interprets this as a signal that market sentiment is bottoming: historically, the mNAV low has been formed roughly six months before Bitcoin's bottom. If the pattern repeats, an autumn bottom at $42,000–44,000 fits that timeline.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are currently targeting a return to $62,600, which opens a straight path to $64,000 and then to $65,500; a break above that would signal attempts to re-establish the bull market. During a downward move, I expect buyers at $60,800. A move back below that area could quickly push BTC toward $59,600. The furthest target would be around $58,200.

Ethereum

A clear hold above $1,664 opens a direct path to $1,725. The farther target is the high near $1,774; a break above that would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. During a pullback, I expect buyers at $1,615. A move back below that area could quickly send ETH toward $1,570, with the furthest target around $1,496.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where the price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.