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The price test at 160.40 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar.
News that the U.S. and Iran will sign a memorandum of understanding, opening the way for 60 days of negotiations aimed at ending the war and establishing new restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, is not currently significantly supporting the Japanese yen. However, yesterday's decision by the Bank of Japan to raise the key interest rate to its highest level since 1995 has provided some support. It is clear that everyone is waiting for the conclusion of this military confrontation, and only after the agreement is signed can we expect a reduction in demand for safe-haven assets, including the U.S. dollar. Only this moment could be a factor in a larger correction in the USD/JPY pair in the near future.
As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at an entry point around 160.40 (green line on the chart), with a growth target of 160.71 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 160.71, I intend to exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant USD/JPY dips. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting its upward movement from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of 160.21 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect growth towards the opposite levels of 160.40 and 160.71.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after it breaches the level at 160.21 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be level 159.80, where I intend to exit the shorts and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers will return at any moment; we only need a hint from the central bank. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its downward movement from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 160.40 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. We can expect a decline towards the opposite levels of 160.21 and 159.80.
Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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