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Gold (XAU/USD) remained below the $4,260 resistance level during the early European session on Friday, while holding above the lowest level since November recorded the previous day. Conflicting rhetoric regarding a potential peace agreement between the United States and Iran has boosted demand for the U.S. dollar, which remains a key factor weighing on precious metal prices.
Additional pressure comes from the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, which continues to encourage capital flows away from non-yielding assets such as gold.
On Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that an agreement with Iran had already been reached and that a final document could be signed in the near future, possibly over the weekend. However, that optimism quickly faded after Iranian officials denied that a final agreement had been reached. Moreover, reports indicate that Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, rejected the agreement proposed by the United States.
The situation has been further complicated by statements from Iran's Foreign Ministry indicating that several key issues remain unresolved, including control over the Strait of Hormuz and the unfreezing of blocked assets, according to Fars News Agency.
Tensions have also increased following reports that Iranian forces blocked the passage of a tanker through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz without prior coordination, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding Tehran's position. At the same time, Fox News reported that U.S. forces intercepted and destroyed two Iranian attack drones near the strait. These developments continue to support the geopolitical risk premium, keeping oil prices elevated and reinforcing inflation concerns.
Against this backdrop, signs of renewed inflationary pressure are emerging in the United States, strengthening the case for maintaining higher interest rates for a longer period. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data released earlier this week pointed to a renewed acceleration in inflation, reinforcing expectations of further monetary policy tightening by year-end. This continues to support the U.S. dollar and increase pressure on gold.
Nevertheless, market participants may refrain from aggressively opening new short positions in XAU/USD, preferring to wait for further developments in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Even so, the precious metal remains on track to post a second consecutive week of notable losses.
From a technical perspective, gold maintains a short-term bearish bias, remaining below its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Momentum indicators remain in negative territory, suggesting that bears continue to hold the upper hand. Resistance remains at $4,260, while key support is located at $4,015.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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