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Yesterday, US equity indices finished mixed. The S&P 500 rose by 0.30%, and the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.86%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.16%.
All this suggests that markets are bouncing back after one of the worst sessions since March. The MSCI Asia Pacific index gained almost 2%, and South Korea's KOSPI popped more than 5% — SK Hynix jumped by 11% after Monday's 10% decline. Buyers who fled late last week returned to the market.
There were several reasons for the recovery. Iran and Israel agreed to temper reciprocal strikes after a flare-up of violence that threatened to derail the peace talks. US President Donald Trump called for de-escalation and, this time, was heeded. Brent eased by nearly 1% to settle at about $93.40. Weekend traffic through the Strait of Hormuz picked up slightly, although some vessels transited with transponders switched off, which underscores remaining risks.
The tech sector received additional catalysts. SpaceX's IPO was heavily oversubscribed. Nvidia and SK Hynix announced a joint chip-development agreement. Apple is preparing an AI-based device reboot. OpenAI confidentially filed for an IPO. All of this fuels the narrative that the market is unwilling to give up even after last week's sharp sell-off. UBS said yesterday that fundamentals remain strong and investor conviction in AI prospects is intact. Morgan Stanley also views the correction as inevitable and ultimately constructive if the bull market is to continue through year-end.
Still, it's too early to relax. The 10-year Treasury yield remains at 4.56% — inflation and expectations of interest rate hikes have not gone away.
The main event this week is Wednesday's US May CPI report. Consensus expects headline consumer price inflation to rise 4.2% year-on-year, the highest in more than three years. Core CPI is expected to edge down month-on-month, which could be a modest positive signal for the Fed. If headline CPI prints above consensus, odds of further rate hikes will increase, the dollar would gain, and pressure on equities would resume.
Technically, the S&P 500 analysis suggests that the immediate task for buyers is to overcome the resistance level of $7,427. That would confirm upside momentum and open the path to $7,451. Maintaining control above $7,475 would further strengthen buyers' positions. On the downside, buyers need to defend $7,404. A break below that level would likely push the index back to $7,381 and open the way to $7,355.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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