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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has recovered a significant portion of Wednesday's losses, reaching its lowest level since April 21, buoyed by the threat of further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.
According to Reuters, during the night on Thursday, the U.S. launched new strikes on an Iranian military facility, which officials believed posed a risk to American troops and commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, the Tasnim news agency reported that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran confirmed that it attacked an American airbase in response to a recent attack near Bandar Abbas airport, emphasizing that any further military actions by the U.S. would provoke a more resolute response. These events heighten geopolitical tensions and stimulate interest in oil prices.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the terms of the deal with Iran, stating that he would not rush into an agreement. This undermines hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the three-month conflict. Furthermore, shipping through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz remains limited due to Iran's control measures and the naval blockade of Iranian ports by the United States. Additionally, data released by the American Petroleum Institute showed that U.S. oil inventories have decreased for the sixth consecutive week, further supporting oil prices.
All fundamental factors seem to create favorable conditions for bulls, enhancing the short-term positive outlook for oil. However, the sharp increase in demand for the U.S. dollar, which typically suppresses interest in dollar-denominated commodities, may limit further gains.
On Thursday, to take advantage of better trading opportunities, it is worth waiting for the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index and the preliminary report on U.S. GDP for the first quarter, which could impact the market during the North American session.
From a technical perspective, oil has shown resilience below $87.00, making attempts to consolidate above the $89.50 level. If prices break above the 50-day EMA, bulls will have a chance to test the round $94.00 level. If prices fail to hold the $87.00 level, a decline towards the 100-day SMA will accelerate. Oscillators are negative, indicating a bearish advantage.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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