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The dollar continued to gain ground against the euro, the pound, and other risk assets, primarily amid the risk of another breakdown in the peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran.
Against the backdrop of ongoing military clashes between the U.S. and Iran, as well as Israeli attacks on Lebanon, the global financial arena is showing increasing nervousness. Traders who previously relied on Donald Trump's statements about a potential peace agreement are now increasingly focused on the real facts that indicate otherwise. This paradigm shift is placing significant pressure on risk assets, particularly the euro and the British pound, while the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen. The situation in the Middle East, which has become a major topic in financial markets, is creating a new wave of uncertainty. Military actions, although localized, create a domino effect, impacting global supply chains, energy prices, and consequently the investment climate. Investors, in turn, prefer safer havens, which traditionally leads to a capital outflow from more volatile assets.
Today's first half of the day will be closely watched as investors await two key events related to the European Central Bank. The first will be a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde, followed by the release of the ECB's monetary policy meeting report. Both reports are likely to have a hawkish tone, suggesting a potential stengthening of rhetoric in favor of curbing inflation, possibly by maintaining or even raising interest rates.
As for the pound, today's trading day, lacking UK data, inevitably shifts participants' focus to the speech of Bank of England Financial Stability Committee member Sarah Breeden. Her words may shed light on the current state of the British financial system and on the central bank's potential future actions regarding regulation and stability maintenance. Traders will closely analyze any hints that Breeden may provide regarding the risks the economy faces and the measures the BoE might take to mitigate them.
If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is advised to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data significantly deviates from economists' expectations, the Momentum strategy is preferred.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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