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The price test at 1.1643 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying euros. As a result, the pair rose by 15 pips.
The euro showed consistent growth in the second half of the day. All of this occurred after US President Donald Trump announced that, despite his initial plans to conduct a large-scale attack on Iran, he decided to postpone this decision. The likelihood of a peaceful resolution to the conflict opens the door to increased international trade and overall economic growth, which, in turn, favors the euro. Although Trump's decision is more tactical, it indicates a potential shift in the approach to the Iranian issue. The postponement of military confrontation and the focus on diplomatic channels may create favorable conditions for reaching agreements that help stabilize the situation in the Middle East.
Today, only data on the Eurozone's external trade balance is expected in the first half of the day. However, a much greater interest lies in the possible reaction of politicians to the ongoing geopolitical tension at the G7 summit. It is very important that the leaders agree to present a united position on issues such as conflicts, energy security, and fighting inflation. Any disagreements or, conversely, signs of consolidation in the communique may affect currency rates, commodity prices, and sentiment in stock markets around the world.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: Today, buy euros when the price reaches around 1.1647 (the green line on the chart) with the aim of rising to level 1.1671. At point 1.1671, I plan to exit the market and sell euros back, anticipating a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth for the euro can only be expected after good data from the Eurozone. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy euros today if the price tests 1.1634 twice in a row, with the MACD indicator in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth towards the opposite levels of 1.1647 and 1.1671.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1634 (the red line on the chart). The target will be level 1.1609, where I plan to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (anticipating movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair may return at any moment today. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1647 twice in a row, with the MACD indicator in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1634 and 1.1609.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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