14.05.202618:04 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on May 14th (U.S. Session)

Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.1722 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the euro. However, the trade resulted in losses, as the pair failed to move higher.

The absence of important eurozone statistics kept volatility in the EUR/USD pair low, providing traders with a period of relative calm amid global uncertainty. Markets, lacking new data to confirm or challenge current forecasts regarding the European economy, were forced to rely on general sentiment and signals from other regions. This created an atmosphere of caution, where major traders were unwilling to show strong activity.

Later, attention will shift to U.S. retail sales data, as well as speeches by Federal Open Market Committee representatives Jeffrey Schmid and Beth M. Hammack. Recently, there has been a tendency toward more hawkish rhetoric from central bank officials, which traditionally supports the U.S. dollar.

Retail sales are considered one of the key indicators of the health of the U.S. economy. The upcoming data is expected to show negative dynamics, which could trigger further speculation about future Federal Reserve actions. Alongside the economic releases, statements by FOMC members Jeffrey Schmid and Beth M. Hammack will be carefully analyzed for possible signals regarding future monetary policy.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches the 1.1718 level (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.1747. At 1.1747, I plan to exit the market and also open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the entry level. A rise in the euro today can only be expected after weak U.S. data.

Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1704 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1718 and 1.1747 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1704 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1681, where I intend to exit the market and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point rebound from the level. Pressure on the pair will return today if strong U.S. data is released.

Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning its downward movement.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1718 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1704 and 1.1681 can then be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area for manually locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area for manually locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to pay attention to overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you ignore money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.