13.05.202609:15 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Bitcoin unwilling to decline, but not showing growth either

The situation in the crypto market is ambiguous: Bitcoin resists falling because any active move below $80,000 is met with strong buybacks. But moving above $82,000 is also quite difficult, which creates a fairly high level of uncertainty about the next move.

Meanwhile, according to the latest Glassnode report, the volume of unrealized losses among long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH Relative Unrealized Loss) reached a relatively low 15% in April. This metric is markedly different from past bear markets, where a similar indicator often approached 75%, signaling a deeper level of pessimism and panic among investors.

The current BTC drawdown, then, does not yet show signs of full-scale capitulation. In previous market cycles, the capitulation phase—characterized by mass sell-offs and maximum losses—preceded the market bottom. The absence of that pattern now may indicate the market has not yet reached its low, and Bitcoin has not found its bottom either.

There remains a possibility that events will follow a more negative scenario. In that case, the market could resume falling in the near term, and the trigger could be anything from a CLARITY failure to new hostilities in the Middle East. Traders should be prepared for the possibility of larger declines, because current data do not rule out a deeper, longer-lasting correction that could take time before the market finds stable support.

Trading recommendations

As for Bitcoin's technical picture, buyers are currently targeting a return to $81,800, which would open a direct path to $83,600, and then on to $85,600. The farthest target is the high around $87,900; surpassing that would indicate attempts to return to a bull market. If Bitcoin falls, buyers are expected at $80,100. A return of the price below that area could quickly push BTC down to around $78,200. The furthest target on the downside would be the $76,300 area.

For Ethereum's technical picture, a clear close above $2,337 would open a direct path to $2,407. The farthest target is the high around $2,446; breaking that would signal strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. If Ether falls, buyers are expected at $2,263. A return of the price below that area could quickly push ETH down to around $2,181. The farthest downside target would be the $2,114 area.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where the price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.