29.04.202612:55 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on April 29th (U.S. Session)

Trade Review and Tips for Trading the British Pound

There were no tests of the levels I outlined during the first half of the day. Low market volatility amid a lack of data releases did its job.

In the coming hours, attention will be focused on the release of several important economic indicators from the United States. The sequence will begin with data on changes in durable goods orders. This indicator is sensitive to the state of industrial production and investment activity, so its dynamics can provide insight into the strength of the current economic cycle. It will be followed by a report on building permits, which signals future activity in the construction sector—one of the pillars of the U.S. economy.

However, despite the importance of these data releases, the main event of the day will undoubtedly be the Federal Open Market Committee's decision on the key interest rate. The regulator is expected to keep the rate unchanged at 3.75%. If confirmed, this stability will highlight the current balance in the economy and signal the Fed's intention to monitor further inflation developments before making any adjustments. The culmination will be the subsequent press conference, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell will present his assessment of economic prospects and explain the reasoning behind the decision.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today when the price reaches the entry point around 1.3515 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3571 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3571, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a 30–35 point move). Further growth in the pound today can only be expected if the Fed adopts a dovish stance.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3493 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3515 and 1.3571 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after a break below the 1.3493 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3436, where I plan to exit short positions and also open long positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pound will return today if the Fed takes a hawkish stance.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3515 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3493 and 1.3436 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated level for setting Take Profit or locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated level for setting Take Profit or locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important Note for Beginner Traders

Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.