20.04.202613:23 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Level and Target Adjustments for the U.S. Session – April 20th

Amid the lack of important European data today, more reports are emerging that Iran may withdraw from peace negotiations with the United States, but traders are ignoring them. At first glance, this seems somewhat paradoxical. One would expect geopolitical tensions—especially in such a sensitive region as the Middle East—to trigger noticeable nervousness in financial markets. However, despite statements about a possible breakdown in dialogue, we are seeing the opposite. Most likely, market participants understand that sooner or later Iran will agree to negotiations, as it has little alternative.

During today's U.S. session, there are no economic data releases scheduled, so all attention will be on new statements from Iran and the United States. This has already created an atmosphere of uncertainty, which traditionally affects markets, but in this case, in the absence of concrete data, price movements may be more speculative. Statements are expected to address both the current status of negotiations and possible compromises. Of particular interest are any signals about a resumption of dialogue or, conversely, a further escalation of disagreements.

If strong data were to appear, I would rely on the Momentum strategy. If there is no market reaction, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum strategy (breakout) for the second half of the day:

For EUR/USD:

• Buying on a breakout above 1.1790 may lead to a rise toward 1.1825 and 1.1850;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.1765 may lead to a decline toward 1.1730 and 1.1705;

For GBP/USD:

• Buying on a breakout above 1.3525 may lead to a rise toward 1.3550 and 1.3590;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.3500 may lead to a decline toward 1.3480 and 1.3450;

For USD/JPY:

• Buying on a breakout above 159.13 may lead to a rise toward 159.40 and 159.84;
• Selling on a breakout below 158.80 may lead to a decline toward 158.57 and 158.25;

Mean Reversion strategy (pullback) for the second half of the day:

For EUR/USD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1777 and a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1744 and a return to this level;

For GBP/USD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3529 and a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3476 and a return to this level;

For AUD/USD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.7170 and a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.7135 and a return to this level;

For USD/CAD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3702 and a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3682 and a return to this level.