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Gold attempted to build intraday gains, rising on Monday toward the round level of $4,700 per ounce. According to Bloomberg, citing Axios, the US, Iran, and regional mediators are negotiating a possible 45-day pause in hostilities, which could be a step toward a temporary ceasefire. These expectations are weakening demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, allowing gold to strengthen.
However, the upward potential for the precious metal remains limited by global expectations of persistently high interest rates, which reduce its attractiveness. Markets believe that the surge in energy prices caused by the war in the Middle East will once again increase inflationary pressure, forcing major central banks—including the Federal Reserve—to maintain tighter monetary policy.
Oil prices are trading above $100 per barrel amid threats from US President Donald Trump to strike Iranian infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by Tuesday.
In response, Tehran stated that transit through this strategically important route will resume only if part of the revenue is allocated to compensate for war-related damages. In addition, an advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Akbar Velayati, warned that resistance forces may expand activity in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea—another key transport hub. All of this increases the risk of disruptions to global supply chains and supports persistently high oil prices.
Positive US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data released last Friday confirmed the resilience of the American labor market and strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a tight policy stance to combat inflation. This factor, despite short-term pressure from the oil market, supports the US dollar and, consequently, influences sentiment around gold.
Nevertheless, the technical picture suggests waiting for a confirmed move below $4,700 to validate a possible end to the recent upward impulse from the March four-month low around $4,100. For now, gold still has a chance to continue its upward movement.
However, it is worth noting that oscillators on the daily chart remain negative, favoring bearish traders.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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