03.04.202613:24 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/CHF. Price Analysis and Forecast

The USD/CHF pair is showing stability after rising by more than 0.5% the previous day and is holding near the round level of 0.800. No significant price fluctuations are observed, as market activity remains subdued due to the Good Friday holiday.

The U.S. dollar continues to hold its position against most global currencies due to increased demand for safe-haven assets, driven by rising geopolitical tensions following recent statements by U.S. President Donald Trump regarding Iran. Trump warned of a possible escalation of military action within the next two to three weeks and once again issued harsh threats, although he has not yet specified concrete steps to restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

In response, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that U.S. strikes on civilian infrastructure would not force Tehran to change its position, describing them as a sign of internal crisis and moral decline on the part of the opponent.

On the U.S. dollar side, investor attention is focused on comments from Federal Reserve officials. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed concern about rising oil prices, noting that this factor could complicate the fight against inflation, especially if fuel price increases fuel inflation expectations. At the same time, the Dallas Fed President supported the decision to keep interest rates unchanged at the latest FOMC meeting, emphasizing that the labor market has shown signs of stabilization since late 2025, although job creation remains weak.

In Switzerland, annual inflation accelerated to 0.3% in March from 0.1%, falling short of the 0.5% forecast but reaching its highest level in the past year. The increase in prices is largely linked to rising energy costs amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. At the same time, inflation remains near the lower bound of the Swiss National Bank's target range (0–2%), reducing the likelihood of a revision to current monetary policy.

From a technical perspective, the pair is trading above key moving averages, and oscillators remain positive. Resistance lies at the round level of 0.800, after which the pair may challenge the March high. The main support is at the 200-day SMA. If this level fails to hold, prices could accelerate downward toward the 100-day SMA, near the round level of 0.7900. However, as long as oscillators remain positive, the bulls are ready to prevail.