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Yesterday, equity indices closed mixed. The S&P 500 rose by 0.11%, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.18%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped by 0.13%.
Indices slowed their slide even though new developments around the Strait of Hormuz and the Middle East war could at any moment re-impose strong pressure on the market. Oil prices posted a sharp advance: West Texas Intermediate added about 12% to around $112 per barrel. The two-year Treasury yield was essentially unchanged at 3.80%.
Meanwhile, Iran said it is developing a protocol with Oman to monitor vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed since the start of the war. That would require shipowners to pay fees to the Islamic Republic, Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said. Although the passage is officially considered international waters and any Iranian attempt to control transit would face active resistance from Western powers and Gulf Arab states, few actors can currently influence Tehran's decisions. But, as I noted above, equity markets are largely ignoring the risks and are instead focused on the prospect of the strait reopening.
Shares plunged yesterday after President Donald Trump's remarks did little to reassure investors about a near-term resolution to the Middle East war, despite his earlier suggestion of a two-to-three-week timeline for ending the conflict. On Thursday, Trump issued fresh threats against Iranian infrastructure in an effort to pressure Tehran during talks.
Tesla Inc. shares fell after the company reported one of its weakest quarterly sales performances in years, missing Wall Street expectations as it struggles to stabilize its core business amid mounting headwinds in the EV market.
Ahead of Friday's March unemployment release, Thursday's data sent mixed signals regarding the labor market. A report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed a 25% month-over-month rise in announced job cuts in March, while initial jobless claims unexpectedly declined in the week ending March 28.
As for the S&P 500 technical picture, the main task for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,577. That would help the index gain upside momentum and could pave the way for a thrust to $6,590. Equally a priority for bulls will be control above $6,603, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In the event of a downside move amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,563. A break below that level would quickly push the instrument back to $6,552 and open the way to $6,537.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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