01.04.202609:31 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Market revises trends

When the S&P 500 is sinking, who better than the US president to throw it a lifeline? Donald Trump's statement that the armed conflict in the Middle East will end in 2–3 weeks became the catalyst for the index's best rally since May. It fell sharply in April due to White House tariffs, but then rose 37% by the end of 2025. History repeats itself, and investors are beginning to price in a post-war rally.

The US is ready to draw a line. Iran has the will to end the conflict, but demands that certain conditions be met. Trump has grasped the implications and wants to break the vicious circle: rising oil prices fuel US inflation, the Fed keeps rates high, and a recession hits the United States.

US dollar, stock indices, and oil dynamics

The White House occupant's retreat revives the so?called TACO trade — "Trump Always Concedes." Yesterday's market outsiders are gaining popularity: the US and emerging market stock indices. Conversely, the once-favorable dollar and oil have fallen into a wave of selling.

The same is happening in stocks. Energy became the main beneficiary of the Middle East conflict. It was the only one of the S&P 500's 11 sectors to finish March in the green. Its divergence from the broad index was record-setting.

If the end of the Middle East conflict does lead to lower oil and gas prices, as Donald Trump and his Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claim, energy risks turning from leader into the biggest laggard.

Meanwhile, following JP Morgan, Wells Fargo cut its S&P 500 2026 forecast — from 7,800 to 7,300 — citing negative factors that could not previously have been accounted for. This is clearly a reference to a geopolitical shock. The firm believes the broad index will not be able to post the same double-digit gains seen in each of the past three years.

By contrast, Morgan Stanley — a day before the S&P 500's bounce — said that the correction in the US stock market is approaching its final stage, because recession fears and further Fed rate hikes will not materialize. Barclays even raised its forecast for the broad index.

De-escalation in the Middle East is a strong argument for buying the S&P 500. Before Trump's comments, investors had resigned themselves to a long war. A shift from fear to optimism and FOMO could produce an impressive rally in the broad index.

Technically, the S&P 500 formed a long-bodied bar on the daily chart that covered the two previous bars. This signals serious intent by the bulls and supports buying on a breakout of resistance at the pivot level of 6,555 or on a rebound from support near 6,510.