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Yesterday, equity indices closed with a sharp gain. The S&P 500 rose by 1.15%, while the Nasdaq 100 added 1.38%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average strengthened by 1.38%.
Already today, the sharp advance in the stock market slowed, and oil prices recovered, as fragile optimism about a potential de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East gave way to renewed caution. S&P 500 futures fell by 0.6%, and European indices, as expected, opened about 0.8% lower as positive sentiment weakened.
Rising geopolitical tension in the Middle East remains the focus of global attention. Recent developments in the information space point to a gradual rapprochement of US allies in the Persian Gulf region, with the possibility of their active involvement in a confrontation with Iran. This potential alliance aimed against Tehran could materially shift the balance of power in one of the most volatile regions on the planet.
An additional catalyst, pouring fuel on growing pessimism, was yesterday's statement by the deputy speaker of one of Iran's parliamentary factions. He categorically ruled out any possibility of talks with the United States, although earlier Trump had said the United States was engaged in active dialogue with Tehran. This firm and decisive declaration from a senior Iranian official was not isolated. Soon after, other officials of the Islamic Republic made similar statements in substance.
The repetition of such statements indicates consolidation of Tehran's position and its unwillingness to engage in dialogue with Washington under current conditions. That rhetoric, together with a possible unification of regional opponents of Iran, creates an atmosphere of uncertainty and raises the probability of conflict escalation.
Against the backdrop of worsening sentiment, Brent crude jumped by 3.6% to around $104 per barrel. The dollar strengthened, and the two-year Treasury yield rose by five basis points to 3.90% amid expectations that higher oil prices could increase the likelihood of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Gold dipped by 1.2%, marking the longest single-day decline on record.
As I noted above, this shift represented a reversal relative to Monday's rally, when Wall Street stocks surged and oil prices fell after President Donald Trump announced he would postpone strikes on Iranian energy targets for five days.
As for the technical picture of the S&P 500, the primary task for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,577. This would help the index gain upside momentum and could open the path to $6,590. Equally a priority for bulls will be control above $6,603, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In the event of a downside move amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,563. A break below that level would quickly push the instrument back to $6,552 and open the way to $6,537.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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