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The price test at 1.1589 occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair decreased by 25 pips.
The U.S. dollar continued to strengthen against the euro, as both the overall and core Consumer Price Index figures matched analysts' expectations. This anticipated outcome, while not surprising, reinforced investors' confidence in the U.S. economy's resilience. The absence of price spikes outside expectations gives the Federal Reserve the opportunity to maintain its current monetary policy, which, in turn, enhances the dollar's appeal as an investment asset. However, several questions remain about the March indicators amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran war, providing ample reasons to buy the dollar for now.
Today's economic calendar indeed shows relative calm, with investors' attention focused on Italy's unemployment data. This report, while an important indicator of the Italian economy's condition, is expected to have only a limited impact on the dynamics of the euro. Current forecasts do not predict sharp changes that could significantly support the euro in the short term.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the euro today when the price reaches an entry point around 1.1551 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.1575. At the point 1.1575, I plan to exit the market and sell immediately on the rebound, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. One can expect the euro to rise only after good data from Italy today. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also intend to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.1531 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.1551 and 1.1575.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1531 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.1501, where I plan to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair today will only return with weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1551 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1531 and 1.1501.
Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. If you choose to trade during the release of news, always set Stop Loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing Stop Loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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