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Bitcoin has once again failed to hold above $71,000, dropping back to $69,500, where it is currently trading. Ethereum remains above $2,000, but the risk of a larger decline remains.
Given that trading continues to occur within sideways channels and that no news is expected to drive a near-term breakout to the upside, market discussions have shifted toward a further correction of Bitcoin to the $45,000–$50,000 range.
The lack of a clear directional movement and the predominance of consolidation create an atmosphere of uncertainty, typically preceding more significant price shifts.
It is worth noting that these discussions have been ongoing for some time, and Bitcoin's failure to rise above $71,000 only intensifies them. A breakout above this significant resistance is needed soon; otherwise, traders may face renewed selling pressure and market strain. Given the expected high price pressure, many central banks are unlikely to continue lowering interest rates, which would be detrimental to monetary liquidity. The less liquidity there is, the greater the chance of another wave of declines in BTC.
However, the current market state, characterized by sideways trading, may also signal accumulation before the next substantial move. As I mentioned earlier, the lack of strong fundamental news, such as inflows into spot ETFs or new legislative approvals, does not provide a basis for a confident upward breakout.
Regarding intraday strategies in the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to rely on significant pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum in anticipation of the bull market continuing in the long term, which is still very much in play.
As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.
Scenario #1: I will buy Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $69,700, targeting a move to $70,700. Around $70,700, I plan to exit the buys and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on the breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.
Scenario #2: I can buy Bitcoin from the lower boundary of $69,100 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to levels $69,700 and $70,700.
Scenario #1: I will sell Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $69,100, targeting a drop to $68,400. Around $68,400, I plan to exit the sales and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on the breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is below zero.
Scenario #2: I can sell Bitcoin from the upper boundary of $69,700 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to levels $69,100 and $68,400.
Scenario #1: I will buy Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $2,034, targeting a move to $2,055. Around $2,055, I plan to exit the buys and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on the breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.
Scenario #2: I can buy Ethereum from the lower boundary of $2,015 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to levels $2,034 and $2,055.
Scenario #1: I will sell Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $2,015, targeting a drop to $1,981. Around $1,981, I plan to exit the sales and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on the breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is below zero.
Scenario #2: I can sell Ethereum from the upper boundary of $2,034 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to levels $2,015 and $1,981.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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