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At the moment, the USD/CAD pair is trying to pause its decline around 1.3550 amid mixed fundamental signals, which calls for caution among bulls.
The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has effectively neutralized the weak U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data released on Friday and pushed the U.S. dollar to new highs since November 2025.
At the same time, the sharp jump in oil prices has increased inflation risks and forced investors to reconsider expectations regarding the timing of the next Federal Reserve interest rate cut, continuing to put pressure on U.S. Treasury yields. Against this backdrop, the dollar is receiving additional support, which
in turn acts as a key factor supporting the USD/CAD pair.
Today, Monday, oil prices jumped by more than 25% during intraday trading, surpassing $110 per barrel and reaching a nine-month high amid fears of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
Such a price surge is expected to support the Canadian dollar as a commodity currency and act as a limiting factor for further gains in USD/CAD.
In addition, Friday's breakout below the key psychological support level of 1.3600 favors the bears, especially since oscillators on the daily chart remain negative. The 1.3600 round level has now turned into resistance, while the pair is trying to find support around 1.3550. If this level fails to hold, prices may accelerate their decline toward the 1.3500 round level.
For bulls to regain the advantage, prices need to return above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA).
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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