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The price test at 1.1629 occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move up from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose by 25 pips.
According to the latest ADP data, job growth in the US private sector exceeded expectations; however, the US dollar did not show significant strengthening. The muted reaction of the currency to positive data may indicate that the market has already priced this factor in or is anticipating more significant economic indicators and geopolitical events. It seems the market has largely taken the positive aspects of this report into account. Investors are likely focusing on other key macroeconomic events, including developments in the Middle East and the war between the US and Iran.
This morning, we are expecting data on retail sales dynamics in the Eurozone for January. These figures are an important indicator of consumer demand and the overall state of the economy in the region. Positive reports may signal a recovery and further growth. At the same time, the speech by the head of the Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, will draw close attention. His statements about the current economic conditions in Germany and the Eurozone, as well as potential future actions by the European Central Bank, may significantly impact the market. Participants will carefully analyze his speech for hints about future monetary policy, especially regarding interest rates.
The publication of the ECB's monetary policy meeting minutes is unlikely to cause significant changes in the market dynamics, as the ECB did not make any important decisions at the last meetings.
As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy euros today if the price reaches around 1.1620 (green line on the chart), with a target price of 1.1660. At point 1.1660, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro back, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the euro today can only be expected after a sharp rise in retail sales. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy euros today if the price tests 1.1595 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase to opposite levels of 1.1620 and 1.1660 can be expected.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1595 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1553, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy back (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will persist today, in any case. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to drop.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1620 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease to opposite levels of 1.1595 and 1.1553 can be expected.
Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. If you choose to trade during the release of news, always set Stop Loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing Stop Loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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