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America will once again be the main source of news in the currency market. It is not so much about the quantity of news, events, and economic reports, but rather their significance for the dollar and the entire currency market. There will not be many standard reports that we have all become accustomed to. If we drop all the secondary data, only the PPI index on Friday remains, and it is hardly significant either. However, next week, Donald Trump may make a series of new decisions that could shake the market once again.
I would even say that the news backdrop for next week is not as important as that for this weekend. Recall that on Friday, the US Supreme Court ruled that most of Donald Trump's trade tariffs were illegal, but the president immediately imposed new 10% tariffs on all countries. On Saturday, Trump decided to increase these tariffs to 15%. It is Sunday, and I wouldn't be surprised if they rose to 20% by Monday. The market has clearly not factored this information in yet, as it has not had the time to do so. My logic is simple—the US currency declined throughout last year due to Trump's policies, particularly his trade decisions. Therefore, now that ultimate justice has not prevailed and there is no hope of the cancellation of tariffs and the return of payments to their rightful owners, the market may once again sell the US currency with a clear conscience.
Based on all of the above, the fate of the EUR/USD and GBP/USD instruments is in Trump's hands, who is unwilling to back down from tariffs and sees a cheap dollar as a solution to the trade balance deficit. In my view, the market already received enough reasons on Friday to lower demand for the US currency again. Recall that the GDP report came in 1.6% below market expectations.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend segment. Trump's policies and the Fed's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term decline of the US currency. The targets for the current segment of the trend may extend to the 25-figure mark. At this moment, I believe the instrument remains within the framework of global wave 5, so I expect the quotes to increase in the first half of 2026. The corrective structure a-b-c may end at any moment, as it has already taken on a convincing form. I believe it is now advisable to look for areas and levels for new purchases with targets around 1.2195 and 1.2367, corresponding to 161.8% and 200.0% on the Fibonacci.
The wave picture for the GBP/USD instrument appears quite clear. The five-wave upward structure has completed its formation, but the global wave 5 may take on a much more extended form. I believe the corrective wave set is forming and may conclude soon, after which the upward trend will resume. Therefore, I would advise looking for opportunities for new purchases with targets above the 39-figure. In my opinion, under Trump, the British pound has a good chance of rising to $1.45-$1.50.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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