13.02.202601:14 Forex Analysis & Reviews: The U.S. Congress Blocked Trump's Tariffs. Is That Allowed?

Donald Trump is indignant. His own country and his own party have turned against him. On Wednesday, the House of Representatives in the U.S. Congress voted to repeal the tariffs imposed by Donald Trump against Canada as part of the fight against the expansion of Chinese influence in North America. Let me briefly recap the history of the difficult relationship between Canada and the U.S.

Last year began with Trump's charming proposal to have Canada become the 51st state of America. Ottawa thought about it for 5 minutes and responded with a refusal. The owner of the White House was upset about this and, without much thought, imposed tariffs. Undoubtedly, there were enough reasons, in Trump's opinion, to impose trade restrictions. Firstly, the White House leader wants to stimulate American production and strengthen American companies. Secondly, Trump wants to fill the U.S. budget with dollars "from nowhere." Thirdly, Canada dared to respond to Washington's tariffs and restrictions multiple times, which deserves the strictest punishment. Fourthly, "bad Canada" for some reason does not want to expand trade cooperation with the U.S., instead signing new agreements with China.

Donald Trump could not tolerate such injustice and raised the tariffs once more. Honestly, I have no desire to delve into the rates of trade payments because they change roughly once a week. The fact remains that Canada is under sanctions, and Americans pay a premium in the budget for all Canadian goods.

The most interesting thing is that six Republicans voted to repeal tariffs on Canada in the House of Representatives. Naturally, this fact did not escape the president's attention. Trump promised to respond harshly to all "traitors" to the party line, but the fact remains that some party members are ready to go against Donald Trump. A narrow margin decided to repeal the tariffs—only 8 votes—, but that is already something: a small, but a victory.

Unfortunately, the decision of the House of Representatives will most likely be overturned by the Senate, where Republicans also maintain control. However, the longer the time goes by, the more congressmen resist Donald Trump's methods of global expansion. Elections will be held at the end of this year, renewing the entire House of Representatives and a third of the Senate. Republicans have every chance of losing their advantage in both chambers.

Wave Picture for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, the instrument continues to build an upward trend. The policies of Trump and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term decline of the U.S. dollar. The goals of the current section of the trend may extend to the 25th figure. At the moment, I believe the instrument remains within the framework of the global wave 5, so I expect an increase in quotes in the first half of 2026. However, in the near term, the instrument may build another downward wave as part of a correction. It is advisable to search for areas and levels for new longs with targets located around the marks of 1.2195 and 1.2367, which correspond to 161.8% and 200.0% according to Fibonacci.

Wave Picture for GBP/USD:

The wave picture of the GBP/USD instrument is quite clear. The five-wave upward structure has completed its formation, but the global wave 5 may take on a much more prolonged form. I believe that in the near future, we may observe the formation of a corrective wave set before resuming the upward trend. Therefore, in the coming weeks, I recommend looking for opportunities for new longs. In my opinion, under Trump, the British pound has every chance of costing 1.45-1.50$. Trump himself welcomes the decline of the dollar. All his actions have a dual effect: the decline of the dollar and the resolution of domestic, foreign, trade, and geopolitical issues.

Main Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to play, as they often bear changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There is never 100% confidence in the direction of movement. Do not forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.