12.02.202609:08 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on February 12. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 153.45 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already risen significantly from the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy dollars and missed the entire upward movement.

The dollar sharply strengthened, and the Japanese yen weakened after news that 130,000 jobs were created in the US last month, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%. All of this came in much better than economists' forecasts. This data served as an unexpected signal of a strong labor market in the United States, prompting investors to reassess the prospects for the American economy. Confidence in growth, supported by job creation, eased concerns about a potential slowdown, which had previously put pressure on the dollar. As a result, the US currency showed significant growth in global markets.

Against this backdrop, the Japanese yen weakened slightly; however, this did not lead to a reversal of the bullish market. The appeal of American assets was a momentary phenomenon that caused capital outflows from riskier or less profitable currencies, with the yen classified in this context.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the realization of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 153.63 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 154.27 (thicker green line on the chart). Near 154.27, I intend to exit my long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (anticipating a 30-35-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 153.19 twice and the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase towards the opposing levels of 153.63 and 154.27 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after it breaks the 153.19 level (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 152.65, where I intend to exit my shorts and immediately buy in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It's better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 153.63 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decrease towards the opposing levels of 153.19 and 152.65 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

The thin green line represents the entry price at which one can buy the trading instrument;

The thick green line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

The thin red line represents the entry price at which one can sell the trading instrument;

The thick red line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

The MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very careful when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.