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Last Friday, equity indices closed higher. The S&P 500 rose by 0.65%, while the Nasdaq 100 added 0.41%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped by 0.88%.
However, already at the start of trading on Monday, futures on US and European equity indices resumed losses.
Developments around a criminal investigation into Jerome Powell are causing serious concern about the Federal Reserve's independence. Allegations of political pressure and the threat of criminal prosecution, if confirmed, could undermine confidence in the Fed and its ability to make decisions based solely on economic data rather than political considerations. Over the weekend, it emerged that the US Department of Justice has opened a criminal probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
At the same time, criticism from Donald Trump, who denies involvement in the investigation, is adding fuel to the fire. Repeated statements about an excessively high interest rate are putting additional pressure on the Fed, creating the impression that the White House is seeking to influence monetary policy ahead of elections.
Markets are likely to follow developments closely. If the investigation intensifies, this could trigger volatility in financial markets and call into question the stability of the US economy. Investors are likely to seek refuge in safe?haven assets such as gold and government bonds, which could put pressure on the US dollar.
The outcome could become a serious constitutional crisis if Powell's claims of political pressure are confirmed. This could deepen divisions in American society and undermine trust in public institutions.
Against this backdrop, gold and silver hit record highs, while the dollar index plunged. US government bonds jumped on safe?haven demand, and their yields continued to fall.
In other market segments, oil continued to rise as investors monitored events in Venezuela and Iran.
As for the technical outlook for the S&P 500, the immediate task for buyers today is to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,930. Overcoming this level would signal further upside and open the path to $6,946. An equally important objective for bulls is to secure control above the $6,961 mark, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In case of a downside move amid waning risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,914. A break below this level could quickly push the instrument back to $6,896 and open the way to $6,883.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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