15.12.202507:26 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Pay Attention to on December 15? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for today. Essentially, the only notable report is the Eurozone industrial production report. It is not the most secondary report, but it is certainly far from the most important. If the reaction to the Federal Reserve meeting last week resulted in movements of 60-80 pips, what can we expect from the Eurozone's industrial production? We believe that this report will not significantly impact the EUR/USD pair today. The calendars of macroeconomic and fundamental events in the UK, EU, and US are empty.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Several fundamental events are scheduled for Monday. In the US, representatives of the Fed's Monetary Committee, Stephen Miran and John Williams, will deliver speeches. There is no doubt that Miran will again emphasize the need to lower the key interest rate as soon as possible, but the last Fed meeting took place only a few days ago, so we are unlikely to hear anything new from committee officials. Jerome Powell has clearly outlined the future trajectory of rates—it's a pause while monitoring macroeconomic data. The "dovish wing" within the Fed remains in the minority, so we should not expect any near-term easing of US monetary policy.

General Conclusions:

On the first trading day of the week, both currency pairs may again lean towards growth, as upward trends continue to form in both cases. However, significant events are scheduled for the following days this week, so today may witness low volatility in a flat market. The European currency has the area of 1.1745-1.1754 to open positions around, while the British pound has the area of 1.3319-1.3331.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can form a multitude of false signals or none at all. At the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades are opened during the time between the start of the European session and mid-American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, using signals from the MACD indicator, it is preferable to trade only when good volatility exists, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips), they should be viewed as an area of support or resistance.
7. After moving 15-20 pips in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

Chart Explanations:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction to trade.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line, a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is crucial to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and implementing sound money management are keys to successful long-term trading.